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Better-than-Expected NFPs Boost the Dollar Index by 10 Points

Better-than-Expected NFPs Boost the Dollar Index by 10 Points

2013-01-31 22:40:00
Renee Mu, Currency Analyst
Share:

OPEN

HIGH

LOW

LAST PRICE

CHANGE(%)

USDOLLAR Index

10151.73

10160.96

10133.86

10143.41

-0.10341

EURUSD Curncy

1.3567

1.3594

1.3541

1.3573

0.044225

GBPUSD Curncy

1.5801

1.5875

1.5775

1.5866

0.411366

USDJPY Curncy

91.08

91.42

90.75

91.39

0.34036

AUDUSD Curncy

1.0418

1.0451

1.038

1.044

0.211173

Prices were taken at 20:30 GMT.

The US Non-farm Payrolls report will dominate market price action for tomorrow, and our research shows that price moves may be significant regardless of outcome. The consensus forecast for January’s NFP gain has been raised to 165k from a lower 155k predicted last week. This indicates that investors have gained more confidence in the US economy as personal income and consumption are expanding, and house and job markets gradually improve. In the next session, NFP will weigh on all the pairs related to the greenback based on traders’ intuition. But the big question is – how much and in what way will the report influence short-term moves?

The following table summarizes the Non-farm Payrolls numbers in 2012 and one-minute changes for the Dollar Index after reports were released. The average change for the 11 samples is 7.6 points, which significantly differs from the average one-minute change in 2012—effectively zero. More specifically, the Dollar Index rose by an average of 10 points when the NFP reading exceeded estimations. Even when reports came worse than forecast, the Index still moved up by 4 points on average. That means no matter what the Non-farm Payroll figure will be tomorrow, it may push the US Dollar Index slightly higher.

Non-farm Payrolls in 2012 and the one-minute change for the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index

Date

Time

Survey

Actual

Better-Than- Expected

Total Ticks

Average Open

Average Close

Change

1/6/2012

13:30:00

156K

200K

Y

10

9994.5

9999

4.5

2/3/2012

13:30:00

146K

243K

Y

11

9722.5

9722.5

0

3/9/2012

13:30:00

212K

227K

Y

10

9920

9928

8

4/6/2012

12:30:00

208K

120K

N

12

10035

10035

0

5/4/2012

12:30:00

158K

115K

N

11

9915

9916.5

1.5

6/1/2012

12:30:00

149K

69K

N

10

10281.5

10294

12.5

8/3/2012

12:30:00

101K

163K

Y

11

10049

10065.5

16.5

9/7/2012

13:30:00

128K

96K

N

3

9918.5

9920

1.5

11/2/2012

12:30:00

122K

171K

Y

9

9946.5

9960

13.5

12/7/2012

13:30:00

86K

146K

Y

25

9991

10009

18

(NFP on10/5/2012 is not included due to missing records of one-minute data in Dollar Index)

If the payrolls reading beats expectations, the past year shows we can anticipate a 10 point gain in the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index in the following minute of trading.

Economic Calendar

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Forecast

Previous

Fri Feb 1

13:30

forex_us_dollar_index_nonfarm_payrolls_body_usd.png, Better-than-Expected NFPs Boost the Dollar Index by 10 Points

USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls (JAN)

High

155K

155K

13:30

forex_us_dollar_index_nonfarm_payrolls_body_usd_1.png, Better-than-Expected NFPs Boost the Dollar Index by 10 Points

USD Unemployment Rate (JAN)

High

7.8%

7.8%

15:00

forex_us_dollar_index_nonfarm_payrolls_body_usd_2.png, Better-than-Expected NFPs Boost the Dollar Index by 10 Points

USD ISM Manufacturing (JAN)

High

50.5

50.7

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