News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Gold Forecast - via @DailyFX “Gold price outlook still hinges on stimulus deal expectations and corresponding swings in real yields.” What will I have my eyes on in the week ahead? Link to Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2020/10/23/gold-forecast-xau-usd-at-the-mercy-of-a-fiscal-stimulus-deal.html $GC_F $XAUUSD $GLD https://t.co/GWEI4d4mMu
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/5uSWKoLkd6 https://t.co/rxswe1gVL0
  • Talks between the EU and UK restarted today and will continue over the weekend as negotiators from both sides battle against the clock. Get your #currencies update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/ER8IT1yxYO https://t.co/Jeeu2P9mwB
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here: https://t.co/UTWxbnNz7M https://t.co/W9awqb818J
  • There is a great debate about which type of analysis is better for a trader. Is it better to be a fundamental trader or a technical trader? Find out here: https://t.co/aVAzFypAg1 https://t.co/lucvsACxu5
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/UVvf51HiVP https://t.co/yywnE39MLU
  • The US Dollar is losing ground against ASEAN FX, with USD/SGD and USD/IDR possibly readying to extend declines. Will USD/PHP and USD/MYR follow? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/l705RWumj5 https://t.co/jBbMKYp0F5
  • There are many different types of forex orders, which traders use to manage their trades. While these may vary between different brokers, there tends to be several basic FX order types all brokers accept. Learn about different FX order types here: https://t.co/lIJdiz4xSz https://t.co/YUhC9cCDpy
  • The US Dollar has spent much of October giving back September’s gains. Is there any hope for change? Get your #currencies update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/3EHa6PV5yH https://t.co/PrP9J2klJk
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/wDVd2QvcjO
Is the US Dollar Rebound Sustainable? Traders Eye the Economic Docket

Is the US Dollar Rebound Sustainable? Traders Eye the Economic Docket

2012-03-27 21:16:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:
Is_the_US_Dollar_Rebound_Sustainable_Traders_Eye_the_Economic_Docket_body_Picture_4.png, Is the US Dollar Rebound Sustainable? Traders Eye the Economic DocketIs_the_US_Dollar_Rebound_Sustainable_Traders_Eye_the_Economic_Docket_body_Picture_3.png, Is the US Dollar Rebound Sustainable? Traders Eye the Economic Docket

The greenback is notably stronger at the close of North American trade with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) advancing 0.34% on the session. The advance comes on the heels of yesterday’s decline which was prompted by dovish remarks from central bank Chairman Ben Bernanke who held his ground with regards to further easing from the Fed amid ongoing weakness in the labor markets. As such, it seems the Fed will maintain its zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) throughout 2012 despite more robust economic data coming out of the world’s largest economy. What does this mean for the dollar? While the remarks suggest no major change in policy, it’s likely to limit dollar advances in the interim as traders continue to factor in super low rates with improving US data likely to see investors shift their focus as the appeal for higher yielding assets grows. Equities were weaker on the session with the Dow, the S&P, and NASDAQ off by 0.33%, 0.28%, and 0.07% respectively as investors piled into the dollar and US Treasuries.

The dollar rebounded off the 100-day moving average at 9896 before encountering resistance at the confluence of former channel support and the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the August 1st and October 27th troughs at 9945. This level remains paramount for the greenback with a breach above offering conviction on our bullish bias with daily targets eyed at long standing trendline resistance dating back to the October 4th highs, currently around 10,020. Note that the daily relative strength index now looks poised for a rebound off the 50-level with such a scenario likely to fuel the index with enough momentum to breach the 9945 barrier. A break below the 100-day moving average eyes daily targets at the 50% extension at 9850.

Is_the_US_Dollar_Rebound_Sustainable_Traders_Eye_the_Economic_Docket_body_Picture_2.png, Is the US Dollar Rebound Sustainable? Traders Eye the Economic Docket

An hourly chart shows the index continuing to trade within the confines of a descending channel formation with the dollar now looking to test channel resistance with an attempted break above the 61.8% extension at 9945. Subsequent intra-day topside targets are eyed at 9975, 10,000, and 10,030. Critical resistance comes into play at the 78.6% extension at 10,080. Support rests at 9900 backed by 9875 and the 50% extension at 9850. Look for the index to remain in consolidation heading into Asia Pacific trade with a breach above channel resistance offering further conviction for dollar advances.

Is_the_US_Dollar_Rebound_Sustainable_Traders_Eye_the_Economic_Docket_body_Picture_1.png, Is the US Dollar Rebound Sustainable? Traders Eye the Economic Docket

The greenback advanced against all four component currencies highlighted by a 0.63% advance against the Australian dollar. The high yielder tested channel resistance today dating back to the February 29th high before reversing sharply to close below the 1.05-figure. The aussie is likely to remain under pressure with our medium-term bias remaining weighted to the downside. For complete AUDUSD scalp targets refer to last week’s Scalp Report. The sterling was the top performer of the lot with a loss of just 0.08% despite broad-based dollar gains. Key resistance for the pound continues to hold at the 1.60-figure, with a likely break above this level eyeing daily topside targets above the 1.61-handle. For complete GBPUSD scalp targets refer to today’s Winners/Losers report.

Tomorrow’s economic docket is highlighted by the February durable goods orders with consensus estimates calling for orders to rise by 2.9% m/m, up from a previous decline of 4.0% m/m. It will be interesting to see the dollar’s reaction on tomorrow’s print with a stronger than expected read likely to support risk, but will it support the dollar in light of Bernanke’s dovish rhetoric? Look to take cues off price action on the heels of the print with a break above channel resistance in the index targeting subsequent topside levels.

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

3/28

12:30

HIGH

Durable Goods Orders (FEB)

2.9%

-4.0%

3/28

12:30

MEDIUM

Durables ex Transportation (FEB)

2.0%

-3.2%

3/28

12:30

LOW

Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (FEB)

1.3%

-4.5%

3/28

12:30

LOW

Non-Defense Capital Goods Shipment ex Aircrafts (FEB)

0.9%

-3.1%

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX.com

Join Michael Tomorrow morning for Live Scalping Session at 1330GMT (9:30ET)

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or follow him on Twitter @MBForex for the latest charts and commentary

To be added to Michael’s distribution list, send an email with the subject line “Distribution List”

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES