News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Crude oil prices fell 4 days in a row, weighed by virus concerns and a much higher-than-expected rise in US crude stockpiles. According to EIA reports, US crude oil inventory climbed by 4.32 million barrels in the week ending Oct 23rd, much higher than a 1.23 million forecast. https://t.co/Q2zfFfzIbT
  • 🇯🇵 Retail Sales YoY (SEP) Actual: -8.7% Expected: -7.7% Previous: -1.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • 🇯🇵 Foreign Bond Investment (24/OCT) Actual: ¥-1,010.8B Previous: ¥419.8B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • Heads Up:🇨🇳 Communist Party Annual Meeting due at 00:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-29
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Retail Sales YoY (SEP) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Expected: -7.7% Previous: -1.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Foreign Bond Investment (24/OCT) due at 23:50 GMT (15min) Previous: ¥419.8B https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-28
  • The New Zealand Dollar may continue to outperform the haven-associated US Dollar as price breaks above key long-term resistance. Get your $NZDUSD market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/D1DxtDkJXd https://t.co/7sESxSVQTr
  • - Biden-Trump betting odds continue to show Biden way ahead of the incumbent - Investors should not get complacent – there is precedent for an unexpected win - Gold price decline may accelerate after XAU/USD broke a multi-week uptrend https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/10/28/Gold-Selloff-to-Accelerate-With-Less-Than-a-Week-Until-Election-Day.html
  • GBP/USD looks likely to continue to trade around the 1.30 level as the talks between the EU and the UK on their future trade relationship continue. Get your GBP/USD market update here:https://t.co/RwiU3esd2q https://t.co/8OnddX6Tbb
  • Wall Street Futures Update: Dow Jones (+0.451%) S&P 500 (+0.498%) Nasdaq 100 (+0.530%) [delayed] -BBG
USD Tests Daily Support- Technicals Suggest Further Losses

USD Tests Daily Support- Technicals Suggest Further Losses

2012-03-19 21:51:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
Share:
USD_Tests_Daily_Support-_Technicals_Suggest_Further_Losses_body_Picture_4.png, USD Tests Daily Support- Technicals Suggest Further LossesUSD_Tests_Daily_Support-_Technicals_Suggest_Further_Losses_body_Picture_3.png, USD Tests Daily Support- Technicals Suggest Further Losses

The greenback remained on the defensive early in the week with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) off by more than 0.31% at the close of North American trade. Today marks the third consecutive day of losses for the dollar after rebounding off critical resistance at 10,080 last week and pressure on the greenback could persist as equity market melt higher. Stocks closed out a lackluster session with the Dow, the S&P, and NASDAQ posting gains of 0.05%, 0.40%, and 0.75% respectively. Although a pullback of some magnitude in the index is likely after such a substantial drawdown, we continue to favor selling into dollar strength in the interim with a break below key support likely to keep downward pressure on the greenback.

The dollar closed the session just below the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the August 1st and October 27th troughs at 9945 with a break below RSI trendline support suggesting the index may continue to trek lower in the interim. Daily support is now eyed at the confluence of the 100-day moving average and channel support at 9880. Topside resistance stands with trendline resistance dating back to the October 4th high backed by the 78.6 extension at 10,080.

USD_Tests_Daily_Support-_Technicals_Suggest_Further_Losses_body_Picture_2.png, USD Tests Daily Support- Technicals Suggest Further Losses

An hourly chart shows the index continuing its descent after breaking below channel support dating back to the February 29th lows before finding solace around the 61.8% extension at 9945. A clear break below this level eyes interim support at 9900 backed by 9875 and the 50% extension at 9850. Interim topside resistance stands at 9975 backed by the psychological 10,000 level, 10,030, and former channel support at 10,055. Note that a break above RSI resistance would alleviate some of the downside pressure on the greenback with such a scenario eying intra-day topside targets.

USD_Tests_Daily_Support-_Technicals_Suggest_Further_Losses_body_Picture_1.png, USD Tests Daily Support- Technicals Suggest Further Losses

The greenback fell against all four component currencies for a third consecutive day highlighted by a 0.51% decline against the euro. The single currency has remained well supported as fears of an imminent default and further debt contagion temporarily subside with the EURUSD eyeing a test of key daily resistance at 1.3280. The yen was the weakest performer of the lot with a gain of just 0.13% despite broad based dollar losses. Our medium-to-long term outlook on the yen remains bearish (bullish USDJPY) with pullbacks in the exchange rate offering favorable long entries eying topside targets around the December 2010 highs at 84.50.

February housing data tops tomorrow’s US economic docket with housing starts and building permits on tap. Consensus estimates call for housing starts to increase by just 0.1% m/m, down from a previous print of 1.5% m/m, with the pace of growth in permits also seen softening to 0.4% m/m from 0.07% m/m. The data is likely to fuel concerns that the sector may have yet to bottom as data continues to lag relative strength in the broader market. As such, a disappointing print could be the catalyst needed to reverse the dollar’s recent drawdown with a broad-based movement into risk aversion likely to limit further dollar losses in the interim.

Upcoming Events

Date

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

3/20

12:30

LOW

Housing Starts (MoM)

0.1%

1.5%

3/20

12:30

MEDIUM

Housing Starts

700K

699K

3/20

12:30

LOW

Building Permits (MoM)

0.4%

0.7%

3/20

12:30

MEDIUM

Building Permits

685K

676K

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX.com

Join Michael Tomorrow morning for Live Trading Q&A Webinarat 1330GMT (9:30ET)

To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or follow him on Twitter @MBForex for the latest charts and commentary

To be added to Michael’s distribution list, send an email with the subject line “Distribution List”

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES