News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Oil - US Crude
Wall Street
More View more
Real Time News
  • 💶 Consumer Confidence Final (OCT) Actual: -15.5 Expected: -15.5 Previous: -13.9
  • 💶 Industrial Sentiment (OCT) Actual: -9.6 Expected: -11 Previous: -11.1
  • 💶 Economic Sentiment (OCT) Actual: 90.9 Expected: 89.5 Previous: 91.1
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.03% France 40: 0.77% US 500: 0.73% FTSE 100: 0.70% Wall Street: 0.57% View the performance of all markets via
  • Heads Up:💶 Industrial Sentiment (OCT) due at 10:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -11 Previous: -11.1
  • Heads Up:💶 Economic Sentiment (OCT) due at 10:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 89.5 Previous: 91.1
  • Heads Up:💶 Consumer Confidence Final (OCT) due at 10:00 GMT (15min) Expected: -15.5 Previous: -13.9
  • 🇬🇧 Mortgage Lending (SEP) Actual: £4.80B Expected: £3.796B Previous: £3.1B
  • 🇬🇧 Mortgage Approvals (SEP) Actual: 91.50K Expected: 76.112K Previous: 84.7K
  • 🇬🇧 BoE Consumer Credit (SEP) Actual: £-0.600B Expected: £0.75B Previous: £0.3B
US Dollar Takes Respite Ahead of Key Event Risk- RBA on Tap

US Dollar Takes Respite Ahead of Key Event Risk- RBA on Tap

2012-03-05 22:35:00
Michael Boutros, Strategist
US_Dollar_Takes_Respite_Ahead_of_Key_Event_Risk-_RBA_on_Tap_body_Picture_4.png, US Dollar Takes Respite Ahead of Key Event Risk- RBA on TapUS_Dollar_Takes_Respite_Ahead_of_Key_Event_Risk-_RBA_on_Tap_body_Picture_3.png, US Dollar Takes Respite Ahead of Key Event Risk- RBA on Tap

The greenback was fractionally weaker at the close of North American trade with the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) off by just 0.02% on the session. Equity markets spent the entire day paring early losses carried over from European trade with news that China had cut its 2012 growth forecast to 7.5% from 8.0% weighing on broader market sentiment. The move opens the door for further easing from the PBoC suggesting that the economy may ultimately face a ‘hard landing’. Stocks closed well off session lows but ended the lower on the day with the Dow, the S&P, and NASDAQ off by 0.11%, 0.39%, and 0.86% respectively.

The index continues to hold above key daily support at confluence of former channel resistance dating back to the January 13th, the 50 & 100-day moving averages, and the 50% Fibonacci extension taken from the August 1st and October 27thtroughs at 9850. A hold above this level remains paramount for the dollar with a break below eyeing subsequent daily targets at the 9800-mark and the 38.2% extension at 9755. Note that the daily relative strength index is now encountering trendline resistance dating back to October 3rd with a breach here suggesting further topside moves for the greenback.

US_Dollar_Takes_Respite_Ahead_of_Key_Event_Risk-_RBA_on_Tap_body_Picture_2.png, US Dollar Takes Respite Ahead of Key Event Risk- RBA on Tap

An hourly chart shows the index continuing to range between soft support at 9875 and soft resistance at the 9900-mark. We favor buying into dollar weakness with a breach above 9900 eyeing intra-day targets at 9920 and the 61.8% extension at 9950. Only a move below the 9840 congestion region negates or short-term bias with such a scenario eyeing subsequent support targets at 9800, 9775, and the 38.2% extension at 9755.

US_Dollar_Takes_Respite_Ahead_of_Key_Event_Risk-_RBA_on_Tap_body_Picture_1.png, US Dollar Takes Respite Ahead of Key Event Risk- RBA on Tap

The greenback advanced fell against three of the four component currencies highlighted by a 0.34% decline against the Japanese yen. The USD/JPY outlook remains weighted to the topside with intra-day pullbacks offering favorable long entries. For complete scalp targets on the USDJPY refer to this morning’s Winners/Losers report. The Australian dollar was the weakest performer of the lot with a decline of 0.61% against the greenback. As China’s largest trading partner, a slowdown in aggregate Chinese demand has much steeper implications for Australia with the aussie coming under substantial pressure today on the heels of the growth downgrade. The AUDUSD has already broken below key support at the 1.0725 level with longer-term support targets eyed at the February 23rd low just shy of the 1.06-handle, and the 50-day moving average at 1.0550. All eyes will be on the RBA interest rate decision later tonight with central bank widely expected to hold the benchmark rate at 4.25%. Should Governor Glenn Stevens specifically cite increased concerns about a slowdown in China, look for the aussie’s decline to accelerate with higher yielding assets likely to track lower should the RBA leave the door open for further easing.

With no data scheduled on tomorrow’s US economic docket, the greenback will continue to take cues off of broader market sentiment with a continued sell-off in risk assets likely to keep the dollar well supported ahead of the key NFP employment data on tap later in the week.

---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with

Join Michael Tomorrow morning for a Live Scalping Webinar at 1330GMT (8:30ET)

To contact Michael email or follow him on Twitter @MBForex for the latest charts and commentary

To be added to Michael’s distribution list, send an email with the subject line “Distribution List”

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.