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Greenback Pares Losses But Remains on the Defensive

Greenback Pares Losses But Remains on the Defensive

2011-05-31 22:11:00
Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist
Share:
Greenback_Pares_Losses_But_Remains_on_the_Defensive_body_Picture_2.png, Greenback Pares Losses But Remains on the DefensiveGreenback_Pares_Losses_But_Remains_on_the_Defensive_body_Picture_3.png, Greenback Pares Losses But Remains on the Defensive

The dollar was able to pare losses early in the session that saw the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar index fall just shy of the 9500 level. The index was higher by a meager 0.01% at the close of North American trade, held back by strength in the euro. The dollar seemingly shrugged off weaker than expected prints on the May consumer confidence, Chicago PMI, and the Dallas Fed manufacturing activity index. The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 56.6 from a previous read of 67.6, marking the fourth largest decline since the report began back in 1967 and highlighted steep declines in the production and new order components. The data confirms the weakness expected in the second half of 2011 and saw the dollar soften early in the session.

Greenback_Pares_Losses_But_Remains_on_the_Defensive_body_Picture_4.png, Greenback Pares Losses But Remains on the Defensive

The greenback managed to climb back, trading at 9570 at the close of trade in New York. Interim support for the dollar holds at 9550 with subsequent floors seen at 9520 and 9460. Topside interim resistance is eyed just above the 96-handle, backed by 9650, 9700, and at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement taken from the November declines at 9728.

Greenback_Pares_Losses_But_Remains_on_the_Defensive_body_Picture_5.png, Greenback Pares Losses But Remains on the Defensive

A look at the component currencies illustrates the euro’s 0.78% advance against the dollar, which gained versus three out of the four equally weighted counterparts. Event risk mounts overnight with the release of the Australian 1Q GDP figures and PMI data out of the Eurozone and the UK. Tomorrow all eyes will be fixated on the US data flow with the ADP employment figures and the ISM manufacturing reports on tap. Consensus estimates call for private sector employment to have added 175K jobs in May, slightly softer than the 179K jobs gained the previous month, while the ISM manufacturing figure is expected to slide to 57.6 from the previous print of 60.4. With markets still waiting on developments from Europe regarding the Greek debt crisis, investors are poised to react and the dollar remains in focus.

Upcoming Events

Region

Date

GMT

Importance

Release

Expected

Prior

AU

6/1

1:30

HIGH

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q)

-1.1%

0.7%

AU

6/1

1:30

HIGH

Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q)

1.0%

2.7%

EC

6/1

7:55

MEDIUM

German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY F)

58.2

58.2

EC

6/1

8:00

MEDIUM

Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY F)

54.8

54.8

UK

6/1

8:30

MEDIUM

Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (MAY)

54.1

54.6

UK

6/1

8:30

MEDIUM

Mortgage Approvals (APR)

47.0K

47.6K

UK

6/1

8:30

MEDIUM

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (APR)

0.7B

0.4B

US

6/1

12:15

MEDIUM

ADP Employment Change (MAY)

175K

179K

US

6/1

14:00

HIGH

ISM Manufacturing (MAY)

57.6

60.4

US

6/1

14:00

MEDIUM

ISM Prices Paid (MAY)

81.5

85.5

US

6/1

14:00

MEDIUM

Construction Spending (MoM) (APR)

0.3%

1.4%

Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact the author of this report or subscribe to their daily analysis, please send inquiries to:mboutros@dailyfx.com

You can also follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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