News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • - Unreal atmosphere - Shame about the result, but no complaints - Usyk masterclass - Heavyweight division blown wide open
  • The USD could still rally a bit from here, but has resistance not far ahead that it will need to overcome if it is to extend to a larger degree. Get your weekly $USD technical forecast from @PaulRobinsonFX here:
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here:
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here:
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Sterling continues to contract into trend extremes and the focus is on a pending breakout in the weeks ahead. Get your weekly $GBP technical forecast from @MBForex here:
Oil Price Slides Towards July Low as US Output Rises for Second Week

Oil Price Slides Towards July Low as US Output Rises for Second Week

David Song, Strategist

Oil Price Talking Points

The price of oil slips to a fresh weekly low ($65.04) despite a larger-than-expected decline in US inventories, with crude on the cusp of taking out the July low ($65.01) as US production increases for the second straight week.


Oil Price Slides Towards July Low as US Output Rises for Second Week

The price of oil showed a kneejerk reaction to the fresh data prints coming out of the US as crude inventories fell 3.234M in the week ending August 13 versus forecasts for a 1.055M decline, but indications of stronger demand may keep the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on track to boost production by “0.4 mb/d on a monthly basis” as the group raises its outlook for global growth.

Image of DailyFX Economic Calendar for US

OPEC’s most recent Monetary Oil Market Report (MOMR) acknowledged that the uptrend in the price of oilwas capped by lingering concerns regarding the rise of COVID-19 infections,” but still showed expectations for a robust recovery as “global economic growth forecasts for both 2021 and 2022 were revised up by 0.1 pp.”

Image of OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report

In turn, the update for August revealed that “world oil demand growth expectations for 2021 remained unchanged from the previous month’s assessment,” with the report going onto say that “total world oil demand is projected to surpass the 100 mb/d threshold in 2H22 and reach 99.9 mb/d on average for the whole of 2022.”

Ongoing expectations for strong consumption may keep the price of oil afloat as OPEC and its allies remain in no rush to restore production to pre-pandemic levels, but a further pickup in US output may continue to drag on crude prices as it climbs to its highest level since May 2020.

Image of EIA Weekly US Field Production of Crude Oil

A deeper look at the figures coming out of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed weekly US field production climbing to 11,400K from 11,300K in the week ending August 6, and it remains to be seen if OPEC and its allies will respond to the developments coming out of the world’s largest economy as the Biden Administration insists that “OPEC+ must do more to support the recovery.”

With that said, the price of oil may face headwinds ahead of the next OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on September 1 amid the ongoing improvement in US output, but failure to take out the July low ($65.01) may keep crude prices within a defined range

Oil Price Daily Chart

Image of Oil price daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, crude broke out of the range bound price action from the third quarter of 2020 as it established an upward trending channel, with the price of oil taking out the 2019 high ($66.60) as both the 50-Day SMA ($71.26) and 200-Day SMA ($59.93)established a positive slope.
  • The broader outlook for crude remains constructive as the rally from earlier this year removed the threat of a double-top formation, but lack of momentum to test the 2018 high ($76.90) pushed crude below the 50-Day SMA ($71.25), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) establishing a downward trend after flashing a textbook sell signal in July.
  • In turn, the price of oil is on the cusp of taking out the July low ($65.01), with a close below the $65.40 (23.6% expansion) region bringing the $62.70 (61.8% retracement) to $62.90 (78.6% expansion) area on the radar.
  • Next area of interest comes in around $60.30 (38.2% retracement), with a move below the 200-Day SMA ($59.93) opening up the Fibonacci overlap around $56.70 (61.8% expansion) to $58.00 (50% expansion).
  • However, failure to take out the July low ($65.01) may keep the price of oil within a defined range, with a move above the overlap around $70.40 (38.2% expansion) to $71.50 (38.2% expansion) bringing the $74.40 (50% expansion) region back on the radar.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.