News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 89.02%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 74.05%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/5Tt68HR25h
  • Heads Up:🇧🇷 BCB Copom Meeting Minutes due at 11:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-11
  • A “PIP” – which stands for Point in Percentage - is the unit of measure used by forex traders to define the smallest change in value between two currencies. Learn how to understand pips in forex here: https://t.co/AfAhmIoVZv https://t.co/dOChzDPvBW
  • Commodities Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.61% Gold: 0.26% Oil - US Crude: -0.88% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/FgSiJ4PcT3
  • Forex Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇪🇺EUR: 0.31% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.27% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.24% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.05% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.00% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/qhfolQdLUG
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: -0.43% US 500: -0.70% France 40: -1.89% FTSE 100: -2.07% Germany 30: -2.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/HjUzIke5gV
  • ZEW economic sentiment soars in May. #zew #euro #eurusd @DailyFX https://t.co/jEIeoeotgq
  • 💶 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (MAY) Actual: 84 Previous: 66.3 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-11
  • 🇩🇪 ZEW Current Conditions (MAY) Actual: -40.1 Expected: -41.3 Previous: -48.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-11
  • 🇩🇪 ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (MAY) Actual: 84.4 Expected: 72 Previous: 70.7 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-11
AUD/USD April Opening Range Intact Ahead of Australia Employment Data

AUD/USD April Opening Range Intact Ahead of Australia Employment Data

David Song, Strategist

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD remains within the confines of a head-and-shoulders formation as it retains the opening range for April, but fresh data prints coming out of Australia may sway the near-term outlook for the exchange rate as employment is expected to increase for the sixth consecutive month.

Advertisement

AUD/USD April Opening Range Intact Ahead of Australia Employment Data

The near-term outlook for AUD/USD is clouded with mixed signals as the exchange rate appears to be stuck in a narrow range following the string of failed attempts to close below the neckline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to a larger rebound in the Australian Dollar as the indicator breaks out of the downward trend from earlier this year.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar for Australia

The update to Australia’s Employment report is anticipated to show the economy adding 35K jobs in March, and the ongoing improvement in the labor market may generate a bullish reaction in AUD/USD as it encourages the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to adopt an improve outlook as “the economic recovery in Australia is well under way and is stronger than had been expected.

However, an unexpected contraction in job growth may drag on AUD/USD as it puts pressure on the RBA to further support the economy, and Governor Philip Lowe and Co. may continue to endorse a dovish forward guidance as “Board is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions until its goals are achieved.

Until then, AUD/USD may continue to consolidate below the 50-Day SMA (0.7713) as it tracks the opening range for April, and it remains to be seen if the decline from the February high (0.8007) will turn out to be a correction in the broader trend or a change in AUD/USD behavior as the recent flip in retail sentiment appears to be dissipating like the activity seen in 2020.

Image of IG Client Sentiment for AUD/USD rate

The IG Client Sentiment report shows 53.03% of traders are currently net-long AUD/USD, with the ratio of traders long to short standing at 1.13 to 1.

The number of traders net-long is 6.03% higher than yesterday and 5.43% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.13% higher than yesterday and 0.87% higher from last week. Despite the rise in net-long interest, the IG Client Sentiment ratio has narrowed from 1.20 to 1.13 as 54.49% of traders were net-long AUD/USD last week, while the rise in net-short position comes as the exchange rate continues to trade within the confines of a head-and-shoulders pattern.

With that said, AUD/USD may continue to track the monthly opening range ahead of Australia’s Employment report amid the string of failed attempts to close below the neckline,but the decline from the February high (0.8007) may end up being a correction in the broader trend rather than a change in behavior as the RSI breaks out of a downward trend to show the bearish momentum abating.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of AUD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • A head-and-shoulders formation has taken shape as AUD/USD trades to a fresh yearly low (0.7532) in April, but need a close below the neckline around 0.7560 (50% expansion) to 0.7570 (78.6% retracement) to open up the downside targets.
  • A measured move of the key reversal pattern brings the 0.7440 (23.6% expansion) to 0.7500 (50% retracement) zone within reach, with the next region of interest coming in around 0.7370 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7380 (61.8% retracement) followed by 0.7180 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7210 (78.6% retracement) area.
  • However, lack of momentum to close below the neckline may keep AUD/USD within the opening range for April as it attempts to push back above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7620 (38.2% retracement) to 0.7640 (38.2% retracement),with the next hurdle coming in around 0.7720 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7760 (23.6% expansion), which largely lines up with the 50-Day SMA (0.7713).
  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlight similar dynamic as the oscillator reverses course ahead of oversold territory to break out of the downward trend from earlier this year.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES