News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/HUYJzEkYiT
  • #Gold prices put in a major breakout last month and, so far, buyers have held the line. But a really big Fed meeting is on the calendar for this week. Can Gold bulls hold? Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/NGRTSfceOW https://t.co/QkSUORIQE2
  • Struggling to define key levels? Floor-Trader Pivots assist traders in identifying areas in a chart where price is likely to approach and can be used to set appropriate targets, while effectively managing risk. Learn how to use this indicator here: https://t.co/Ye4m1FMKUW https://t.co/PHK2sqB1jV
  • Top event risk for more than just the Dow and Dollar this week is the Wednesday #FOMC rate decision. What the markets expect sets the tone for how the event impacts price action. My run down of the week and Fed decision: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/06/12/Dollar-and-SP-500-Breaks-Must-Abide-the-FOMC-Decision-This-Week.html https://t.co/Huvth4f706
  • What suits your style of trading stocks or commodities? Find out what are the differences in these two markets here: https://t.co/BnA07cMV0s https://t.co/AkE7bFRWAt
  • $GBPUSD continues to trade in ranges as volatility dwindles. UK data to play second fiddle to FOMC. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/T0Eg4KaENB https://t.co/GMmZa5L0Il
  • Get your snapshot update of the of market open and closing times for each major trading hub around the globe here: https://t.co/BgZLFljIhZ https://t.co/wlGgQrcK3X
  • What's the difference between leading and lagging indicators? Find out from here: https://t.co/vGx8HCagF5 https://t.co/qnQ8Cx0DKv
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5cVYOn https://t.co/RJLpBgS43V
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/6GrWzkOouM
AUD/USD Forecast: Rate to Watch Ahead of Australia Employment Report

AUD/USD Forecast: Rate to Watch Ahead of Australia Employment Report

David Song, Strategist

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD consolidates following the limited reaction to the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, but the exchange rate may stay afloat ahead of the update to Australia’s Employment report as the crowding behavior in the US Dollar carries into August.

AUD/USD Forecast: Rate to Watch Ahead of Australia Employment Report

AUD/USD trades near the 2020 high (0.7243) even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snaps the upward trend established in July, and it remains to be seen if Australia’s Employment will influence the exchange rate as the economy is projected to add 40K jobs in July.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar for Australia

At the same time, the jobless rate is expected to increase to 7.8% from 7.4% in June as discouraged workers return to the labor force, and the participation rate may continue to recover from the lowest reading since 1997 as Treasurer Josh Frydenberg extends fiscal stimulus programs like the Jobkeeper Payment for six-months.

However, the previous update showed part-time jobs driving the headline figure as full-time positions fell for the fourth consecutive month, and the update may do little to sway the monetary policy outlook as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) vows to “not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment.”

It seems as though the RBA is no rush to shift gears as the Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) reveals that “the yield target will remain in place until progress is being made towards the goals for full employment and inflation,” and Governor Philip Lowe and Co. may stick to the sidelines throughout the remainder of the year as “there was no need to adjust the mid-March package.

In turn, the RBA may merely buy time at the next interest rate decision on September 1 as “the Board continues to view negative interest rates as being extraordinarily unlikely in Australia,” and the limited scope for additional monetary stimulus may provide a backstop for AUD/USD as the Federal Reserve pledges to “increase our holdings of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace.”

Until then, current market conditions may keep AUD/USD afloat as the crowding behavior in the US Dollar carries into August even though the DXY Indextrades to fresh multi-year lows for the second consecutive week.

Image of IG Client Sentiment Index for AUD/USD rate

The IG Client Sentiment report shows retail traders have been net-short AUD/USD since April, with the latest update showing 42.00% of traders net-long the pair as the ratio of traders short to long stands at 1.38 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 7.16% higher than yesterday and 5.71% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 8.32% higher than yesterday and 2.78% higher from last week.

The rise in open interest suggests the crowding behavior in the US Dollar will persist even as AUD/USD trades near the 2020 high (0.7243), but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be deviating with price as the oscillator snaps the upward trend established in July after failing to push into overbought territory.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of AUD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the advance from the yearly low (0.5506) gathered pace as AUD/USD broke out of the April range, with the exchange rate clearing the January high (0.7016) in June as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushed into overbought territory.
  • AUD/USD managed to clear the June high (0.7064) during the previous month even though the RSI failed to retain the upward trend from earlier this year, with the oscillator pushing into overbought territory for the fourth time in late-July.
  • The RSI established a bullish trend in July as AUD/USD traded to fresh yearly highs, but the indicator now appears to be deviating with price as it snaps trendline support after failing to push into overbought territory.
  • Nevertheless, the break/close above the 0.7180 (61.8% retracement) region has brought the 2019 high (0.7295) on the radar as AUD/USD rebounds from the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) to 0.7140 (23.6% retracement), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.7370 (38.2% expansion).
  • Will keep a close eye on the RSI as it appears to be deviating with price, with lack of momentum to hold above the 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) to 0.7140 (23.6% retracement) region bringing the 0.6970 (23.6% expansion) to 0.6980 (23.6% expansion) area back on the radar.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES