0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇨🇭 Unemployment Rate (JUL) Actual: 3.2% Previous: 3.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-10
  • Heads Up:🇨🇭 Unemployment Rate (JUL) due at 05:45 GMT (15min) Previous: 3.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-10
  • The US Dollar is testing key support levels against the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso and Indonesian Rupiah following persistent losses. Get your #ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/qqYDELqydd https://t.co/WPUL1SO8Fv
  • - #USDollar may catch a haven bid as the US and China lock horns over technology - #TrumpExecutiveOrders may encounter congressional friction, spark dash to cash - #bidenvppick announcement could fail to stir markets unless the choice is unexpected https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/08/10/US-Dollar-Comeback-Ahead-US-China-Tensions-Push-Havens-Higher.html
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.01%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 77.49%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/AB97lqEJQB
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 0.18% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.13% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.12% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.08% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/ThG7IBzIKu
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: 0.67% France 40: 0.66% Germany 30: 0.60% Wall Street: 0.23% US 500: 0.14% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/2l1TvwiW5l
  • The Indian Rupee struggled to benefit from an unexpected RBI rate hold as the Nifty 50 inched closer to invalidating a bearish reversal signal. What is the road ahead for USD/INR? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/Zjiay6hQWT https://t.co/IdM8hb6pI1
  • Join @ZabelinDimitri 's #webinar at 11:30 PM ET/3:30 AM GMT to find out how geopolitical risk will affect the markets in the week ahead. Register here: https://t.co/hsULxMNOtM https://t.co/TJbPf8arC3
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 1.26% Gold: -0.27% Silver: -1.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/4Ap99p4ATh
AUD/USD Outlook: 2019 High on Radar as RSI Pushes Into Overbought Zone

AUD/USD Outlook: 2019 High on Radar as RSI Pushes Into Overbought Zone

2020-07-30 00:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD trades to a fresh yearly high (0.7197) as the Federal Reserve retains a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy, and current market conditions may keep the exchange rate afloat as the crowding behavior in the US Dollar persists, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushes into overbought territory.

AUD/USD Outlook: 2019 High on Radar as RSI Pushes Into Overbought Zone

The reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision warns of a further appreciation in AUD/USD as it extends the advance from the start of July, and the exchange rate appears to be on track to test the 2019 high (0.7295) as the RSI climbs into overbought territory for the fourth time this year.

Looking ahead, the RSI may mimic the behavior seen in June as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to retain the current policy at its next meeting on August 4, and the Australian Dollar may continue to outperform its US counterpart as long as the oscillator holds above 70.

Image of IG Client Sentiment

At the same time, it looks as though the crowding behavior in the US Dollar will carry into the month ahead as the IG Client Sentiment report continues to show retail traders net-long USD/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/JPY, while the crowd remains net-short NZD/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/USD.

Image of IG Client Sentiment for AUD/USD

Retail traders have been net-short AUD/USD since April, with the latest update showing 38.45% of traders net-long the pair as the ratio of traders short to long stands at 1.60 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 9.84% higher than yesterday and 25.14% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.87% lower than yesterday and 11.21% lower from last week.

It seems as though the AUD/USD rally is fueling net-long interest as it extends the advance from the start of July, while the decline in net-short positions suggests stop-loss orders are being triggered as the exchange rate trades to a fresh 2020 high (0.7197).

With that said, current market conditions may keep AUD/USD afloat as the crowding behavior in the US Dollar persists, and the extreme RSI reading is likely to be accompanied by a further appreciation in the exchange rate like the behavior seen in June.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by David Song
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of AUD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the advance from the yearly low (0.5506) gathered pace as AUD/USD broke out of the April range, with the exchange rate clearing the January high (0.7016) in June as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushed into overbought territory.
  • AUD/USD managed to clear the June high (0.7064) even though the RSI failed to retain the upward trend from earlier this year, but the oscillator may mimic the behavior seen in June as the indicator pushes into overbought territory for the fourth time this year.
  • The break/close above the 0.7180 (61.8% retracement) region brings the 2019 high (0.7295) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.7370 (38.2% expansion).
Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by David Song
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.