Gold Price Talking Points
Gold trades to a fresh record high ($1945) ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on July 29, and the price for bullion may continue to carve a series of higher highs and lows as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushes deeper into overbought territory.
Gold Price Trades to Fresh Record High Amid Extreme RSI Reading
The price of goldhas traded to fresh yearly highs during every single month so far in 2020, and the extreme reading in the RSI is likely to be accompanied by higher gold prices amid the behavior seen in February.
In turn, the bullish price action may carry into August as long as the RSI holds above 70, and current market conditions may keep gold prices afloat as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)vows to “increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency MBS (Mortgage-Backed Security) and agency CMBS (Commercial Mortgage-Backed Security) at least at the current pace.”
Source: FOMC
Looking ahead, the Fed’s balance sheet looks poised to cross back above $7 trillion as it expands for the second consecutive week, and more of the same from Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. may heighten the appeal of gold as the committee remains “committed to using our full range of tools to support the economy in this challenging time.”
With that said, it seems as though the FOMC will rely on its lending facilities as well as its asset purchases to support the US economy, and the threat of a double-dip recession may push the central bank to expand the size and scope of its quantitative easing (QE) programs as Fed officials show little interest adopting a yield caps or targets (YCT) policy.
Until then, it remains to be seen if the crowding behavior in the US Dollar will also carry into August as the IG Client Sentiment report continues to show retail traders net-long USD/CHF, USD/CAD and USDJPY, while the crowd remains net-short NZD/USD, AUD/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
The net-long US Dollar exposure persists even though the DXY index continues to track the downward trend from the March high (102.99), and the low interest rate environment along with the ballooning central bank balance sheets may continue to act as a backstop for the price of gold as market participants look for an alternative to fiat-currencies.
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Gold Price Daily Chart
Source: Trading View
- The technical outlook for the price of gold remains constructive as it trades to fresh yearly highs during every single month so far in 2020, with the bullish behavior also taking shape in July as precious metal tags a new 2020 high ($1898).
- The price of gold cleared the 2012 high ($1796) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) established an upward trend in June, with the recent strength in the price of gold pushing the indicator into overbought territory for the third time this year even though it snapped the upward trend carried over from the previous month.
- The extreme reading in the RSI is likely to be accompanied by higher gold prices amid the price action seen in February, and the bullish behavior may persist as long as the indicator holds above 70.
- As a result, topside targets remain on the radar as the price of gold clears the previous record high price recorded in September 2011 ($1921), but need a close above the Fibonacci overlap around $1907 (78.6% expansion) to $1920 (161.8% expansion) to bring the $1971 (100% expansion) to $1985 (261.8% expansion) region on the radar.
--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist
Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong
