0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.1629 S2: 1.1694 S1: 1.1718 R1: 1.1783 R2: 1.1825 R3: 1.189 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.51% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.39% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.38% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.12% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.36% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/qEABm6nDyn
  • US Treasury Yields: 2-Year: 0.159% 3-Year: 0.188% 5-Year: 0.299% 7-Year: 0.496% 10-Year: 0.671% 30-Year: 1.369% $TNX
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 2.87% Gold: 0.40% Oil - US Crude: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/9zzrCQMv2s
  • S&P 500 price is within striking distance of hitting all-time highs as stocks continue to rally. Get your market update from @RichDvorakFX here: https://t.co/pKvJ9wv9VY https://t.co/kkbBSDDVo8
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 95.94%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 78.38%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Ycy6nhUEDm
  • Indices Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.09% US 500: -0.02% Wall Street: -0.07% France 40: -0.14% FTSE 100: -0.32% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/6KHC1wW7Wo
  • Ugly numbers but (always a but with data), June monthly GDP +8.7% gives hope.... https://t.co/CYevGpL7g5
  • Fed's Daly: #Fed committed to making inflation goal of 2% - BBG
  • With the S&P 500 just topping its all-time record high and the 10YR Treasury yield up again now to 67-bps, yesterday's selloff in stocks looks more like it had to do with margin calls related to the sharp reversal in precious metals.
AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired by Failure to Test 2020 High

AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired by Failure to Test 2020 High

2020-07-14 00:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD continues to pullback from the monthly high (0.7001) even though Australia Treasurer Josh Frydenberg unveils another A$750 economic support payment, and the exchange rate may consolidate ahead of Australia’s Employment report amid the failed attempt to test the 2020 high (0.7064).

AUD/USD Rate Outlook Mired by Failure to Test 2020 High

AUD/USD tracks a narrow range following the limited reaction to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision, but the update to Australia’s Employment may influence the exchange rate as the economy is expected to add 112.5K jobs in June.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar for Australia

At the same time, the Unemployment Rate is projected to increase to 7.4% from 7.1% in May as discouraged workers return to the labor force, and a positive development may trigger a bullish reaction in the Australian Dollar as it saps speculation for additional monetary support.

A rebound in employment along with the proactive approach by fiscal authorities is likely to keep the RBA on the sidelines as the economic shock from COVID-19 “has been less severe than earlier expected,” and Governor Philip Lowe and Co. may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next interest rate decision on August 4 as the central bank vows to “not increase the cash rate target until progress is being made towards full employment.”

However, it remains to be seen if fiscal authorities will continue to support the economy as programs like the Jobkeeper Paymentis set to expire on September 27, and the RBA may come under pressure to provide additional monetary support as Standard and Poor’s and Fitch Ratings cut Australia’s credit rating outlook to ‘negative’ from ‘stable.

Until then, the resilience in the Australian Dollar may persist as the RBA reveals that “the Bank has not purchased government bonds for some time,” but lack of momentum to test the 2020 high (0.7064) may generate a near-term correction in AUD/USD as the RSI appears to be reversing course ahead of overbought territory.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by David Song
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of AUD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the advance from the yearly low (0.5506) gathered pace as AUD/USD broke out of the April range, with the exchange rate clearing the February high (0.6774) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pushed into overbought territory.
  • However, AUD/USD appears to be stuck in a narrow range after trading to a fresh 2020 high (0.7064) in June, and the exchange rate may continue to consolidate in July as the RSI fails to retain the bullish trend from earlier this year, with the oscillator reversing course ahead of overbought territory.
  • The string of failed attempts to close above the 0.6970 (23.6% expansion) to 0.6980 (23.6% expansion) region keeps the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6720 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6800 (61.8% expansion) on the radar as AUD/USD trades within the June range.
  • Need a break/close above the 0.6970 (23.6% expansion) to 0.6980 (23.6% expansion) region to open up the 2020 high (0.7064), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.7090 (78.6% retracement), which largely lines up with the July 2019 high (0.7082).
  • At the same time, a break/close below Fibonacci overlap around 0.6720 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6800 (61.8% expansion) opens up the downside targets, with the first area of interest coming in around 0.6600 (50% expansion) to 0.6650 (61.8% expansion), which largely lines up with the June low (0.66480).
  • Next area of interest comes in around 0.6520 (38.2% expansion) 0.6540 (78.6% expansion) followed by the overlap around 0.6380 (50% expansion) to 0.6450 (38.2% expansion).
Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by David Song
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.