EUR/USD Rate Talking Points
EUR/USD reverses ahead of the June low (1.1101) despite little progress for a European recovery fund, and a bull flag formation may unfold over the coming days as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the bullish formation from March.
EUR/USD Bull Flag Formation in Focus as RSI Tracks Bullish Trend
EUR/USD carves a series of higher highs and lows even though the European Council meeting on June 19 offered no new details for a COVID-19 recovery fund, and the exchange rate may stage a larger advance ahead of the update to the Euro Zone Consumer Price Index (CPI) as the European Central Bank (ECB) appears to be taming speculation for additional monetary support.
In a recent interview, ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos defended the decision to expand the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by EUR 600B to EUR 1.350 trillionin June, but pointed out that the asset purchases are “temporary” as the unconventional tool is set to expire in June 2021.
At the same time, Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann insists the PEPP is “temporary in nature” while speaking in Frankfurt, with the Governing Council official going onto say that “policy makers must not assume that we would keep the financing costs of governments low forever or iron out any differences in sovereign-risk premia.”
The comments suggest the ECB is in no rush to deploy more non-standard measures as “euro area activity is expected to rebound in the third quarter,” and the central bank may soften the dovish forward guidance at the next meeting on July 16 as European Council President Charles Michel vows to ‘start real negotiations with the member states, and will convene an in-person summit, around mid-July in Brussels.’
Efforts to pass the proposed EUR 750B recovery fund may push the ECB to the sidelines even though the Governing Council stands ready to “adjust all of its instruments,” and the reluctance to implement lower interest rates may keep EUR/USD afloat as President Christine Lagarde and Co. appear to be on track to retain the current policy in the second half of the year.
In turn, EUR/USD may stage another attempt to test the March high (1.1495) as the exchange rate reverse ahead of the monthly low (1.1101), and a bull flag formation may unfold over the coming days as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) preserves the bullish formation from March.
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EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart
Source: Trading View
- Keep in mind, the monthly opening range was a key dynamic for EUR/USD in the fourth quarter of 2019 as the exchange rate carved a major low on October 1, with the high for November occurring during the first full week of the month, while the low for December happened on the first day of the month.
- The opening range for 2020 showed a similar scenario as EUR/USD marked the high of the month on January 2, with the exchange rate carving the February high during the first trading day of the month.
- However, the opening range for March was less relevant amid the pickup in volatility, with the pullback from the yearly high (1.1495) producing a break of the February low (1.0778) as the exchange rate slipped to a fresh 2020 low (1.0636).
- Nevertheless, EUR/USD appeared to be on track to test the March high (1.1495) after breaking out of the April range, but the exchange rate struggles to retain the advance from the start of the month amid the failed attempt to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion).
- It remains to be seen if a bull flag formation will unfold over the coming days as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounces from trendline support to preserve the bullish formation from May, with a break/close above the 1.1270 (50% expansion) to 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) region bringing the 1.1340 (38.2% expansion) area on the radar.
- Next hurdle comes in around 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1430 (23.6% expansion) to 1.1450 (50% retracement), which largely lines up with the monthly high (1.1423).
--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist
Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong
