News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • A forex trader is strategic, disciplined and always switched on to the markets. Learn how to build an FX mindset here: https://t.co/tB3aAErd70 https://t.co/Ilqz8BWTk0
  • The final ‘full’ week of the year brings about the last wave of significant event risk from around the globe, including three central bank rate decisions (Fed, BOE, & BOJ). Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/PhqxSPlngI https://t.co/XX57vSjQwV
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/HOvzuOICQx
  • Ever wonder if there are other chart types that can be sued for technical analysis? HLOC charts are discussed in the following article as well as their pros and cons. Learn more here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/32hYzqhuZ9
  • The Australian Dollar sits on the crossroads of Treasury yields, the S&P 500 and US fiscal stimulus expectations. Will $AUDUSD gains slow? Chinese Q4 GDP and Australian jobs data are due. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/BsYmmWFYOH https://t.co/HhLqb2iVgk
  • #Gold prices have come under significant pressure to kick-off 2021. However, the formation of bullish technical patterns across multiple timeframes suggests that a rebound higher may be at hand. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/Dpf8N4Fh0T https://t.co/pnZpnM9yT5
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/yCtLFemdNc
  • GBP underpinned as BoE downplays negative rates, alongside vaccine rollout. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/n6V6uw0XV5 https://t.co/Toq2fxSdBE
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/5VzSt5Ak7R
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/Jkv0onMyZw
EUR/USD Rate Struggles Ahead of EU Meeting on European Recovery Fund

EUR/USD Rate Struggles Ahead of EU Meeting on European Recovery Fund

2020-06-18 04:42:00
David Song, Strategist

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USDstruggles to hold its ground following the failed attempt to test the March high (1.1495), and the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from the May low (1.0767) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pulls back from overbought territory.

EUR/USD Rate Struggles Ahead of EU Meeting on European Recovery Fund

EUR/USD dips to a freshly weekly low (1.1207) ahead of the European Council meeting on June 19, with the agenda largely focused on “establishing a recovery fund to respond to the COVID-19 crisis.

It remains to be seen if an agreement will be reached as the European Central Bank (ECB) expands the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) in June by EUR 600B to EUR 1.350 trillion, and European Union (EU) officials may merely attempt to buy time as the Governing Council “remains fully committed to doing everything necessary within its mandate to support all citizens of the euro area through this extremely challenging time.

Recent remarks from ECB board member Fabio Panetta suggest the central bank will utilize its balance sheet throughout 2020 as he expects “a prolonged period of very accommodative monetary policy,” with the official going onto say the central bank is “ready to take all the necessary measures to reach our inflation objective.”

At the same time, Mr. Panetta argues that the proposed EUR 750B Recovery Fund should be deployed “no later than early 2021” as the ECB rules out a V-shape recovery, and it seems as though President Christine Lagarde and Co. will retain a dovish forward guidance in the second half of the year even though “euro area activity is expected to rebound in the third quarter as the containment measures are eased further.”

Nevertheless, the Governing Council may move to the sidelines following the decision to expand the PPEP, and the reluctance to implement lower interest rates may keep EUR/USD afloat as the central bank appears to be on track to retain the current policy at the next meeting on July 16.

However, the failed attempt to test the March high (1.1495) may generate a near-term correction in EUR/USD, and the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from the May low (1.0767) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pulls back from overbought territory.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by David Song
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups surrounding foreign exchange markets.

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of EUR/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the monthly opening range was a key dynamic for EUR/USD in the fourth quarter of 2019 as the exchange rate carved a major low on October 1, with the high for November occurring during the first full week of the month, while the low for December happened on the first day of the month.
  • The opening range for 2020 showed a similar scenario as EUR/USD marked the high of the month on January 2, with the exchange rate carving the February high during the first trading day of the month.
  • However, the opening range for March was less relevant amid the pickup in volatility, with the pullback from the yearly high (1.1495) producing a break of the February low (1.0778) as the exchange rate slipped to a fresh 2020 low (1.0636).
  • Nevertheless, EUR/USD appeared to be on track to test the March high (1.1495) after breaking out of the April range, but the exchange rate struggles to retain the advance from the start of the month amid the failed attempt to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion).
  • It remains to be seen if a bull flag formation will pan out over the coming days as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to track the upward trend from earlier this year, but a break of trendline support would negate the scope for a continuation pattern as it highlights a potential shift in market behavior.
  • Need a break/close below the 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) to bring the 1.1140 (78.6% expansion) region on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around the 1.1100 (7.86% expansion) handle.
Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by David Song
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES