News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Brexit latest: Unlike the EU, the UK have tunnel vision https://t.co/yKrIlhghPV
  • The London trading session accounts for around 35% of total average forex turnover*, the largest amount relative to its peers. The London forex session overlaps with the New York session. Learn about trading the London forex session here: https://t.co/UTWxbnNz7M https://t.co/2Kmj91Q6Io
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.64%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 63.56%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/55tpE5bH1O
  • Scary to think how many job losses will have become permanent in the wake of the #CoronavirusPandemic Continuing jobless claims peaked at levels almost 3 times higher than those seen in the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis Hardly bodes well..... https://t.co/d7oLYkmw7k
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.15% Silver: -0.30% Oil - US Crude: -0.61% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/EoU23OHkkK
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.30% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.17% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.15% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.04% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.05% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/4Dr4Fb5iTz
  • $USDJPY Rebound Fades On Renewed Stimulus Optimism, Vaccine Progress #USD $JPY https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/euro_open/2020/09/28/USDJPY-Rebound-Fades-On-Renewed-Stimulus-Optimism-Vaccine-Progress.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/AvIiXSQT75
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/UalZ8cRSXB https://t.co/rutYHpQcmy
  • Indices Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 1.63% Germany 30: 1.59% FTSE 100: 1.29% Wall Street: 0.70% US 500: 0.63% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/UnrjjfCXtF
  • Lately, capital has been flowing out of #EmergingMarkets and #ASEAN economies, pushing the US Dollar higher against their respective currencies Will this trend continue this week? Check out my latest fundamental outlook here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/09/28/US-Dollar-Rose-Capital-Fled-Emerging-Markets-SGD-IDR-PHP-MYR-at-Risk.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/iyFPD664Cb
EUR/USD Tracks April Range Ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report

EUR/USD Tracks April Range Ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report

2020-05-08 00:30:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD pares the decline from earlier this week as attention turns to the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, and the exchange rate appears to be reversing course ahead of the April low (1.0727) as it snaps the series of lower highs and lows from the previous week.

EUR/USD Tracks April Range Ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) Report

EUR/USD bounces back from the weekly low (1.0767) even though the ECB endorses a dovish forward guidance while presenting the 2019 Annual Report to the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, and updates to the US NFP report may fuel a larger rebound in the exchange rate as employment is expected to contract 22.0M in April.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar for US

At the same time, the jobless rate is anticipated to increase to 16% from 4.4% in March, and the economic shock from COVID-19 may push the Federal Reserve to further support to the US economy as Chairman Jerome Powell pledges to “use our tools to assure that the recovery, when it comes, will be as robust as possible.”

It remains to be seen if the NFP report will trigger a meaningful reaction as the ADP Employment report revealed a 20.236M contraction in private payrolls, and the updated figures may do little to alter the course for monetary policy as the FOMC remains “committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time.”

Recent remarks coming out of the ECB suggest the Governing Council will take a similar approach despite the ruling by the German Constitutional Court as Vice-President Luis de Guindos insists that the central bank is “more determined than ever to ensure supportive financial conditions across all sectors and countries to allow this unprecedented shock to be absorbed.

Mr. Guindos went onto say that the ECB stands readyto make further adjustments to our monetary policy measures should we see that the scale of the stimulus is falling short of what is needed,” and President Christine Lagarde and Co. may continue to endorse a dovish forward guidance at the next meeting on June 4 as the “growth scenarios produced by ECB staff suggest that euro area GDP could fall by between 5% and 12% this year, depending crucially on the duration of the containment measures.”

In turn, the ECB may continue to utilize its non-standard measures to support the monetary union as the central bank remains reluctant to push the main refinance rate, the benchmark for borrowing costs, into negative territory, and the Euro may face headwinds throughout 2020 as the Governing Council remains “fully prepared to increase the size of the PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme) and adjust its composition, by as much as necessary and for as long as needed.”

With that said, the Euro may underperform against its US counterpart in the current environment as the greenback benefits from the flight to safety, but EUR/USD appears to be reversing course ahead of the April low (1.0727) as the exchange rate snaps the series of lower highs and lows from the previous week.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by David Song
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups surrounding foreign exchange markets.

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of EUR/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the monthly opening range has been a key dynamic for EUR/USD in the fourth quarter of 2019 as the exchange rate carved a major low on October 1, with the high for November occurring during the first full week of the month, while the low for December happened on the first day of the month.
  • The opening range for 2020 showed a similar scenario as EUR/USD marked the high of the month on January 2, with the exchange rate carving the February high during the first trading day of the month.
  • However, the opening range for March was less relevant amid the pickup in volatility, with the pullback from the yearly high (1.1495) producing a break of the February low (1.0778) as the exchange rate slipped to a fresh 2020 low (1.0636).
  • Nevertheless, EUR/USD may trade within a more defined range in May as the advance from the April low (1.0727) failed to produce a test of the 1.1040 (61.8% expansion) region, which lines up with the April high (1.1039).
  • At the same time, EUR/USD appears to be reversing course ahead of the April low (1.0727) as the exchange rate snaps the series of lower highs and lows from the previous week, with the failed attempt to close below the 1.0780 (100% expansion) region bringing the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0830 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0860 (23.6% retracement) on the radar.
  • Next area of interest comes in around 1.0950 (100% expansion) to 1.0980 (78.6% retracement) followed by the 1.1040 (61.8% expansion) region.
Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by David Song
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES