News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • The final ‘full’ week of the year brings about the last wave of significant event risk from around the globe, including three central bank rate decisions (Fed, BOE, & BOJ). Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:https://t.co/PhqxSPlngI https://t.co/XX57vSjQwV
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/HOvzuOICQx
  • Ever wonder if there are other chart types that can be sued for technical analysis? HLOC charts are discussed in the following article as well as their pros and cons. Learn more here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/32hYzqhuZ9
  • The Australian Dollar sits on the crossroads of Treasury yields, the S&P 500 and US fiscal stimulus expectations. Will $AUDUSD gains slow? Chinese Q4 GDP and Australian jobs data are due. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/BsYmmWFYOH https://t.co/HhLqb2iVgk
  • #Gold prices have come under significant pressure to kick-off 2021. However, the formation of bullish technical patterns across multiple timeframes suggests that a rebound higher may be at hand. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/Dpf8N4Fh0T https://t.co/pnZpnM9yT5
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/yCtLFemdNc
  • GBP underpinned as BoE downplays negative rates, alongside vaccine rollout. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/n6V6uw0XV5 https://t.co/Toq2fxSdBE
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/5VzSt5Ak7R
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/Jkv0onMyZw
  • Why is JPY called a safe haven? What are some factors in its favor this quarter? Get your free forecast here: https://t.co/mzeJ5x73N3 #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/S4bwgGZxmw
NZD/USD April Range Intact as New Zealand Eases Nationwide Lockdown

NZD/USD April Range Intact as New Zealand Eases Nationwide Lockdown

2020-04-29 00:00:00
David Song, Strategist

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZD/USD trades in a narrow range following the failed attempt to test the monthly low (0.5843), but the exchange rate may face a more bearish fate ahead of the next Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting on May 13 as the central bank endorses a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy.

NZD/USD April Range Intact as New Zealand Eases Nationwide Lockdown

NZD/USD extends the rebound from the previous week as New Zealand starts to roll back the nationwide lockdown, and the exchange rate may continue to track the monthly range as the government takes gradual steps to restart the economy.

However, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern urged New Zealanders to stay home if possible as the social distancing rules remain in place, and the change in lifestyle may undermine hopes for a V-shaped recovery if the behaviors sparked by the lockdown laws become a new norm.

In turn, the RBNZ may take additional steps to support the New Zealand economy as Governor Adrian Orr insists that the central bank has not ruled out a negative interest rate policy (NIRP), but it seems as though the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will continue to utilize the balance sheet in 2020 as “members agreed to provide forward guidance that the OCR (official cash rate) would stay at the level of 0.25 percent for at least 12 months.”

Image of RBNZ announcement

Source: RBNZ

As a result, the RBNZ may continue to endorse a dovish forward guidance at its next meeting on May 13, and it remains to be seen if Governor Orr and Co. will deploy more unconventional tools over the coming months as the central bank expands the Large Scale Asset Purchase programme (LSAP) to include NZ$ 3B of Local Government Funding Agency (LGFA) debt.

With that said, the RBNZ may continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory as the update to China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report revealed a larger-than-expected decline in the growth rate, and speculation for additional monetary support may present headwinds for the New Zealand Dollar especially as Governor Orr keeps an open mind in directly monetizing New Zealand government debt.

Nevertheless, NZD/USD may face range-bound conditions going into May as it reverses course ahead of the monthly low (0.5843), with the April high (0.6131) on the radar as the exchange rate extends the rebound from the previous week.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by David Song
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

NZD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of NZD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, NZD/USD has failed to retain the range from the second half of 2019 as the decline from earlier this year produced a break of the October low (0.6204), with a ‘death cross’ taking shape in March as the 50-Day SMA (0.6102) crosses below the 200-Day SMA (0.6377).
  • The negative slope in both the 50-Day SMA and the 200-Day SMA offer a bearish outlook for NZD/USD, and the advance from the yearly low (0.5469) may continue to unravel as the exchange rate snaps the upward trending channel carried over from the previous month following the failed attempt to test the former support zone around 0.6170 (50% expansion) to 0.6230 (38.2% expansion).
  • As a result, NZD/USD appears to be on track to test the monthly low (0.5843) as it initiates a fresh series of lower highs and lows, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic as the oscillator snaps the bullish formation from March.
  • A break/close below the 0.5880 (100% expansion) region brings the Fibonacci overlap around 0.5740 (78.6% retracement) to 0.5790 (61.8% retracement) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.5640 (261.8% expansion).
Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by David Song
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES