News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Higher global natural gas prices could hint to a near-term increase in US exports - Moody's via BBG $NG $NG_F
  • WTO crude is on pace to put in its highest session close in three years. If it clears 76, it will be a far bigger technical event. $CL_F weekly chart below
  • Fed's Williams: - It is reasonable for the taper to be completed by mid-2022 - I recognize that inflation is currently elevated
  • Both USD/CHF and USD/SEK rates appear poised for most upside in the near-term, while surging energy prices may be offering a different route for USD/NOK. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here:
  • Fed's Williams: - Optimistic that the economy will allow an "imminent" taper - Elevated levels of uncertainty make forecasting difficult
  • Gold Price Outlook: #Gold Drops into Pivotal Support- $XAUUSD Levels -
  • Fitch Ratings: - We do not expect the advent of a new gov't in Germany to produce a significant change in near-term economic prospects - Expect sound fiscal policies following German elections, with a focus on sustainability of public debt
  • The USD is trading in an ascending triangle formation, marked by horizontal resistance around the 2021 highs to go along with bullish trendline support. Get your market update from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Fed's Brainard: - It is too soon to say the virus has permanently altered the labor market - It is critical to ensure that bank stress tests are powerful and do not deteriorate over time
  • Fed's Brainard: - We don't know when the pricing consequences of the pandemic will subside - Congress must step up and handle the debt ceiling crisis
NZD/USD Rate Rebound Unfolds as RSI Bounces Back from Oversold Zone

NZD/USD Rate Rebound Unfolds as RSI Bounces Back from Oversold Zone

David Song, Strategist

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZD/USD extends the rebound from the yearly low (0.6191) as the Federal Reserve delivers an emergency 50bp rate cut, and the exchange rate may stage a larger correction as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounces back from oversold territory and breaks out of the bearish formation from earlier this year.

NZD/USD Rate Rebound Unfolds as RSI Bounces Back from Oversold Zone

NZD/USD retraces the decline from the previous month as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) alters the course for monetary policy, and the update to the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may do little to curb the recent rebound in the exchange rate even though the economy is anticipated to add 175K jobs in February.

Image of Fed Fund futures

Fed Fund futures reflect 100% probability for another rate cut on March 18, with market participants pricing a 90% chance for a 50bp reduction, and the update to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) may reveal a material shift in the forward guidance for monetary policy as the central bank takes a proactive approach in combating COVID-19.

In turn, Fed officials are likely to project a lower trajectory for the benchmark interest rate, but it remains to be seen if the FOMC will prepare US households and businesses for a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard insists that market participants shouldn’t “prejudge” the March meeting. Mr. Bullard warns that “it’s unlikely we’re going to have that much different of information when we get to the March meeting,” but went onto say that “all options are on the table” as the coronavirus continues to drag on the global supply chain.

The weakening outlook for global growth may force the FOMC to implement lower interest rates throughout 2020 especially as President Donald Trump tweets that “the Federal Reserve is cutting but must further ease,” and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) may face a similar fate when Governor Adrian Orr and Co. meet on March 25 as the coronavirus dampens the outlook for global growth.

Until then, NZD/USD may continue to retrace the decline from the previous month as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) bounces back from oversold territory and breaks out of the downward trend from earlier this year.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

NZD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of NZD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • NZD/USD has failed to retain the range from the second half of 2019 as the decline from earlier this year produced a break of the October low (0.6204), and a ‘death cross’ may take shape over the coming days as the 50-Day SMA (0.6493) approaches the 200-Day SMA (0.6481).
  • However, the break of the August 2015 low (0.6197) was short lived, with the failed attempt to break/close below the 0.6180 (161.8% expansion) to 0.6210 (78.6% expansion) region pushing NZD/USD towards the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6310 (100% expansion) to 0.6330 (23.6% retracement).
  • The Relative Strength Index (RSI) points to a larger rebound in NZD/USD as the indicator bounces back from oversold territory and breaks out of the bearish formation from earlier this year.
  • A move above the 0.6370 (50% retracement) region opens up the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6400 (61.8% retracement) to 0.6430 (78.6% retracement), with the next area of interest coming in around 0.6470 (50% retracement) to 0.6490 (61.8% expansion).

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.