We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/9PYqo6tYdK
  • What are the truths and lies of #forex trading regardless of your #tradingstyle here: https://t.co/uF75VPzstr https://t.co/cuH9YESlr2
  • The $SGD is driven by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, which manages exchange rate instead of short-term interest rates. Learn more on the SGD and how to trade it. Get your SGD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/eWLM9XZs5Y https://t.co/HdiCLtSFre
  • #Bitcoin prices may see a pickup in volatility ahead of the 2020 halving as the #coronavirus pandemic threatens to disrupt cross-continental $BTC mining operations. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/BoH24MVf4P https://t.co/4bgTwNqVvG
  • (Weekly Outlook) The Japanese #Yen faced a mixed week against currencies such as the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound and Canadian Dollar. What is ahead for $USDJPY, $EURJPY, $GBPJPY and $CAD/JPY? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/04/04/Japanese-Yen-Weekly-Forecast-USDJPY-EURJPY-GBPJPY-CADJPY.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/Flgbd5b2ag
  • Foreign exchange – or “#forex” – markets often pay close attention to politics and central bank policy. We offer a model for traders to gauge their impact on exchange rates. Get your market insight from @ZabelinDimitri and @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/FbXc1Awu6a https://t.co/Qbhs4ndgPa
  • Why must financial market traders monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/AldbSctm9V
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/yF133btXFd https://t.co/Sjnr0iVgAf
  • Upside momentum stalls with the #DAX and #FTSE 100 vulnerable to testing lower levels as the economic backdrop deteriorates further. Get your #equities technical analysis from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/BFIaXTfDcs https://t.co/q0Mso4zWlT
  • RT @iv_technicals: *TRUMP SAYS HE'D USE TARIFFS IF NEEDED TO PROTECT OIL INDUSTRY - BBG #OOTT #WTI $USO
AUD/USD Rate Rebound in Focus Ahead of RBA Minutes as RSI Recovers

AUD/USD Rate Rebound in Focus Ahead of RBA Minutes as RSI Recovers

2020-02-17 02:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD appears to be stuck in a narrow range ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes, but the exchange rate may extend the advance from the monthly low (0.6662) as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovers from oversold territory.

AUD/USD Rebound in Focus Ahead of RBA Minutes as RSI Recovers

The recent rebound in AUD/USDappears to have sputtered ahead of the monthly high (0.6774), and the exchange rate may face range-bound conditions over the coming days as the RBA appears to be in no rush to alter the forward guidance for monetary policy.

The transcript from the first meeting for 2020 may highlight a wait-and-see approach as the “central scenario is for the Australian economy to grow by around 2¾ per cent this year and 3 per cent next year,” and the RBA may attempt to buy more time at its next meeting on March 3 amidsigns that the slowdown in global growth that started in 2018 is coming to an end.”

Image of RBA interest rate

In turn, the RBA Minutes may keep AUD/USD afloat as the central bank tames speculation for lower interest rates and emphasizes that “the easing of monetary policy last year is supporting employment and income growth in Australia and a return of inflation to the medium-term target range.

However, the coronavirus may become a growing concern for the RBA as China, Australia’s largest trading partner, struggles to contain the outbreak, and the central bank may come under pressure to further insulate the economy as Governor Philip Lowe and Co. insist that the board “remains prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed.”

With that said, AUD/USD may face a more bearish fate over the coming months as the weakening outlook for the Asia/Pacific region raises the scope for a wider interest rate disparity between Australia and the US.

Nevertheless, recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) warns of a larger rebound in AUD/USD as the oscillator recovers from oversold territory and carves a bullish formation.

Forex for Beginners
Forex for Beginners
Recommended by David Song
Forex for Beginners
Get My Guide

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of AUD/USD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the monthly opening range has been a key dynamic for AUD/USD in the fourth quarter of 2019 as the exchange rate carved a major low on October 2, with monthly high for November occurring during the first full week of the month, while the low for December happened on the first day of the month.
  • The opening range for 2020 showed a similar scenario as AUD/USD marked the high of the month on January 2, and recent price action keeps the downside on the radar as the exchange rate clears the 2019 low (0.6671).
  • As a result, AUD/USD may consolidate over the coming days as the recent rebound appears to have stalled ahead of the monthly high (0.6774), but developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) raises the scope for a larger rebound in the exchange rate as the oscillator recovers from oversold territory and carves a bullish formation.
  • A closing price above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6720 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6730 (100% expansion) may spur a run at the monthly high (0.6774), with the next area of interest coming in around the 0.6800 (61.8% expansion) handle.
  • Need a break/close below the 0.6620 (100% expansion) to 0.6650 (61.8% expansion) region to bring the downside back on the radar, with the next hurdle coming in around 0.6510 (161.8% expansion) to 0.6540 (78.6% expansion).
Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by David Song
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.