We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Get your stock market basics right - what is the stock market and how does stock trading work? Find out here: https://t.co/JfAJLAtlsY https://t.co/ZfPUxHWeiG
  • The Mexican economy contracted for the first time in almost 10 years in 2019, but growth is expected to pick up in 2020 according to its finance minister. Get your $USDMXN market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/gupJdU7WYT https://t.co/mMN8LFb5i5
  • EUR/USD has been weakening since the start of 2020 and the decline has accelerated this month. At some point there will be a correction but further losses are still likely as the year progresses. Get your $EURUSD market update from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/ieJUBNeAIf https://t.co/Dw4f7DQocg
  • The $AUD has risen in anticipation of a deal Washington and Beijing. But the Australia-China trade relationship has not suffered much and may even have been helped by China’s spat with the US. Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/An7h5X0Zcz https://t.co/Rn7mLbS1EF
  • How can traders avoid #FOMO in trading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 #tradingstyle https://t.co/0Wn4xBL0AY
  • Do you know which type of stock is the right investment for you? Stock types help investors decide on specific #stocks to trade or assist with valuation methods either fundamentally or technically. Learn more about stock types here: https://t.co/yO3JalkqUU https://t.co/RoNdExHAdt
  • The status of the US #dollar as the safe-haven asset of choice remains untouched and any weakness in the greenback is likely to be short-lived. Get your $USD market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/LO2u38jpUT https://t.co/ctgCJSOeTH
  • #FTSE 100 testing key support as the index lacks a directional bias. #DAX reverses off channel top. Get your indices technical analysis from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/IHF2dgMfg9 https://t.co/2fMTFlOeTR
  • With knowledge of price action, traders can perform a wide range of technical analysis functions without the necessity of any indicators, including management of risk. Build on you knowledge of price action here: https://t.co/9hQA0bsYtt https://t.co/5KQowxuiBf
  • The term ‘Ichimoku,’ literally means ‘one glance,’ in Japanese. Ichimoku, or the one glance indicator, is considered to be a self-contained system in the fact that no additional indicators are necessary. Learn more about the 'one glance' indicator here: https://t.co/T7o7W9C0Ro https://t.co/7bhBfWvEkR
Oil Forecast: RSI Offers Buy Signal Even as OPEC Cuts Demand Forecast

Oil Forecast: RSI Offers Buy Signal Even as OPEC Cuts Demand Forecast

2020-02-13 01:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Oil Price Talking Points

The price of oil climbs to a fresh weekly high ($51.73) despite a larger-than-expected rise in US crude inventories, and oil prices may attempt to break out of the monthly range as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flashes a textbook buy signal.

Oil Forecast: RSI Offers Buy Signal Even as OPEC Cuts Demand Forecast

The price of oil approaches the monthly high ($52.20) even though US crude inventories increased for the third consecutive week, with stockpiles rising 7459K in the week ending February 7 versus forecasts for a 3200K expansion.

Image of US field production of crude oil

In addition, weekly field production bounced back during the same period, with crude output climbing to the record high of 13,000K from 12,900K in the week ending January 31, and signs of greater supply may become a growing concern for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as the group reduces its oil demand forecast for 2020.

Image of OPEC oil demand forecast

The most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) notes that “oil demand growth in 2020 is revised down by 0.23 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment” as China, one of the largest consumers of oil, struggles to contain the coronavirus, and OPEC and its allies may take additional steps to rebalance the energy market as the Joint Technical Committee (JTC)recommendedextending voluntary production adjustments under the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ process until the end of 2020.”

In turn, OPEC and its allies may take additional steps to keep crude prices afloat, but it remains to be seen if the group will make a major announcement at the next meeting starting on March 5 as Gazprom Neft CEO Alexander Dyukov, one of the largest oil producers in Russia, proposes to “maintain current quotas.”

With that said, the ongoing commitment to the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ may continue to provide a floor for crude prices, and the price of oil may attempt to break out of the monthly range as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flashes a textbook buy signal.

Oil Forecast
Oil Forecast
Recommended by David Song
Download the 1Q 2020 Forecast for Oil
Get My Guide

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Image of oil price daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Crude appears to be stuck in the monthly opening range after clearing the August low ($50.52), and the price of oil may continue to consolidate amid the lack of momentum to break/close below the Fibonacci overlap around $48.80 (38.2% expansion) to $49.80 (78.6% retracement).
  • However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) instills a bullish outlook for crude as the oscillator breaks out of the downward trend from earlier this year and bounces back from oversold territory to flash a textbook buy signal.
  • Need a break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around $51.40 (50% retracement) to $51.80 (50% expansion) to open up the $53.10 (23.6% retracement) region, with the next area of interest coming in around $54.90 (61.8% expansion) to $55.50 (38.2% retracement).
Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by David Song
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.