News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @GuyAdami: Profile pictures notwithstanding, this was another worthwhile conversation. Thank you @JohnKicklighter from @DailyFX for join…
  • S&P 500 Price Forecast: SPX Tests Huge Zone at Bull Flag Support https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/session_briefing/daily_fundamentals/2020/10/27/SPX-SPY-ES-Price-Forecast-SPX-Tests-Huge-Zone-at-Bull-Flag-Support.html $SPX $SPY $ES https://t.co/Pu2IgKdY5E
  • ....also, the outlook with a third peak in Covid cases in the US - and spread globally - is going to seriously undermine the sustainability of growth
  • A lot is being made of how remarkable the forecasted 31% increase in US GDP for 3Q would be if we hit the number Thursday, but remember the context. We are coming off a -31.4% plunge. You need an even bigger recovery to get back up to pace starting from a hole https://t.co/oBJKnOVgqu
  • is possible that USD/CAD is trying to carve a higher-low from the September 1 low, but some more work is needed to turn the near-term favorable for taking long-side bets. Get your $USDCAD technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/qNZxsbcXZO https://t.co/tZbYH8fG2h
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.79%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 70.03%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/zsLSaHzzOv
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 Bundesbank Balz Speech due at 17:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-27
  • The blue-chip Dow ($DJIA) is coming up on a six-month trendline support close to the 50-day moving average. Overlay here is $CAT who reported a 54% drop in earnings https://t.co/T5Oj8rVQg9
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 2.64% Silver: 0.72% Gold: 0.33% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/laWDJf4nqF
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.61% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.44% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.39% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.29% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.20% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/0kZ2RALYDe
Bullish Oil Price Outlook Supported by Golden Cross Formation

Bullish Oil Price Outlook Supported by Golden Cross Formation

2020-01-07 06:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Oil Price Talking Points

The price of oil approaches the 2019 high ($66.60) following the US airstrike on Iran, and recent price action instills a bullish outlook for crude as a ‘golden cross’ formation take shape.

Bullish Oil Price Outlook Supported by Golden Cross Formation

The 2020 opening range is in focus for the price of oil as it trades at an eight-month high, and fears of a supply-side shock may keep crude prices afloat as Iran pledges to retaliate to the death of general Qassim Soleimani.

Unlike the reaction to the Saudi Arabia drone attack, growing tension between the US and Iran may have a more prominent impact on oil prices as President Donald Trump insist that “the United States will quickly & fully strike back, & perhaps in a disproportionate manner.”

Oil Forecast
Oil Forecast
Recommended by David Song
Download the 1Q 2020 Forecast for Oil
Get My Guide

A disruption in oil output may put pressure on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to boost production, but the group may emphasize its commitment to the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ as Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak pledges to uphold “the agreement signed on July 2 to extend the deal until April 1.”

It remains to be seen if OPEC and its allies will make a meaningful adjustment at the next meeting starting on March 5 as the group agreed to reduce output by another 500K b/d at the last conference in December, and the producers may regulate the energy market throughout 2020 as US production sits at a record high.

Image of EIA weekly US field production of crude oil

Recent figures coming out of the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed weekly field production holding steady at 12,900K in the week ending December 27, and OPEC and its allies may continue to counter the rise in US output as U.A.E. Energy Minister Suhail Mohammed Al Mazrouei insists that “OPEC and OPEC+ members will be satisfiedwith a price ranging between $60 and $70 per barrel or even $80.”

However, the Phase One trade deal may tame the recent rise in oil prices as the US and China, the two largest consumers of oil, appear to be on track sign the agreement on January 15, and OPEC may find it difficult to extend its production-cutting measures as “oil demand is expected to grow by 1.1 mb/d.”

With that said, fears of a supply-side shock along with the commitment to the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ may push the price of oil towards the 2019 high ($66.60), and recent price action instills a bullish outlook for crude as a golden cross formation take shape.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Image of Crude Oil price daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Crude appears to be on track to test the 2019 high ($66.60) as it clears the September high ($63.38), with the next topside hurdle coming in around $68.80 (23.6% retracement) to $69.20 (50% retracement).
  • However, failure to close above the Fibonacci overlap around $63.70 (38.2% retracement) to $64.60 (100% expansion) may raises the scope for a short-term pullback in the price of oil as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to push into overbought territory.
  • In turn, the overlap around $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement) sits on the radar, but the recent crossover in the 50-Day SMA ($58.49) and 200-Day SMA ($57.88) casts a bullish outlook for crude as a ‘golden cross’ takes shape.
  • Need a close above the Fibonacci overlap around $63.70 (38.2% retracement) to $64.60 (100% expansion) to bring the $65.90 (78.6% retracement) on the radar.
Traits of Successful Traders
Traits of Successful Traders
Recommended by David Song
Traits of Successful Traders
Get My Guide

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES