News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.01% Silver: -0.22% Oil - US Crude: -0.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/cZeVIxiAJm
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.32%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 75.03%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/fmCBX0W0w3
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.07% Silver: -0.21% Oil - US Crude: -0.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/MBlfthkrSp
  • Heads Up:🇲🇽 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes due at 15:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-26
  • What are some key influences Black Friday has on the economy and stock markets? Find out: https://t.co/KIsvaIWZDN https://t.co/NS7o4MrEok
  • Indices Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.06% US 500: 0.04% Wall Street: 0.01% France 40: -0.03% FTSE 100: -0.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/zTLPlL868T
  • 🇨🇦 Average Weekly Earnings YoY (SEP) Actual: 6.9% Previous: 7.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-26
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 93.45%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 74.75%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/rb0KHIpnDO
  • Forex Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.22% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.04% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.02% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.11% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.11% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/LZMBGAenik
  • Heads Up:🇨🇦 Average Weekly Earnings YoY (SEP) due at 13:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 7.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-11-26
Gold Price Holds Support Zone as Trump Negotiates Phase Two Trade Deal

Gold Price Holds Support Zone as Trump Negotiates Phase Two Trade Deal

2019-12-16 03:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Gold Price Talking Points

The price of gold consolidates as the Trump administration and China appear to be on track to sign Phase One of the trade deal, but the ongoing shift in US trade policy may sway the near-term outlook for bullion as the Federal Reserve reiterates that monetary policy “is not on a preset course.”

Gold Price Holds Support Zone as Trump Negotiates Phase Two Trade Deal

Gold gives back the reaction to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, with the price for bullion pulling back from the monthly high ($1487) as President Donald Trump tweets that the administration “will begin negotiations on the Phase Two Deal immediately, rather than waiting until after the 2020 election.

The agreement instills an improved outlook for global growth as “both sides have reached consensus that the US side will fulfill its commitments to phase out its additional tariffs on Chinese products,” and future developments may continue to sap the appeal of gold as it encourages the FOMC to retain the current policy for the foreseeable future.

Image of Federal Reserve interest rate forecast

The update to the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggests the central bank will largely endorse a wait-and-see approach over the coming months as the dot-plot shows the benchmark interest rate sitting in its current threshold of 1.50% to 1.75% throughout 2020.

In turn, the FOMC may continue to tame speculation for lower interest rates at the next decision on January 29, but the central bank could be forced to alter the forward guidance in 2020 as Chairman Jerome Powell insists that “if developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly.”

Image of Fed Fund Futures

In fact, Fed Fund futures currently show a 30% probability for a rate cut in June 2020, and the FOMC may continue to respond to the shift in US trade policy as the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR)reveals that the Trump administration is “initiating a process to assess increasing the tariff rates and subjecting additional EU products to the tariffs.”

With that said, developments coming out of the US may continue to sway the price of gold, but the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1447 (38.2% expansion) to $1457 (100% expansion) helps to rule out the threat of a Head-and-Shoulders formation as the region appears to be acting as support.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Gold Price Daily Chart

Image of gold price daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the broader outlook for gold prices remain constructive as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) clear the bearish trends from earlier this year, with the precious metal trading to a fresh yearly-high ($1557) in September.
  • Moreover, the reaction to the Fibonacci overlap around $1447 (38.2% expansion) to $1457 (100% expansion) helps to rule out the threat of a Head-and-Shoulders formation as the former-resistance zone appears to be acting as support.
  • However, the near-term correction in the price for gold has been accompanied by a bearish formation in the RSI, with the pattern offering a mixed signal as a bull flag formation also takes shape.
  • In turn, gold may largely track the November range, with a move above $1489 (23.6% retracement) bringing last month’s high ($1516) on the radar.
  • Need a break/close above the $1509 (61.8% retracement) to $1517 (78.6% expansion) region to bring the topside targets on the radar, with the first hurdle coming in around $1554 (100% expansion), which largely lines up with the yearly-high ($1557).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 4Q 2019 Forecast for Gold

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES