We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • RT @arwaib: BREAKING: Jets flying over Baghdad right now after reports of expected #US response to earlier rocket attacks that slammed in e…
  • RT @ForexLive: China confirmed #coronavirus cases: Jan 17: 41 Jan 19: 62 Jan 20: 201 Jan 21: 291 Jan 22: 440 Jan…
  • #JPY, #USD #gold up with bond futures, #crudeoil down with S&P 500 stock futures as #coronarovirus fears grip markets at weekly trading open. Backstory here - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/01/26/Japanese-Yen-US-Dollar-May-Gap-Higher-as-Week-Starts-on-Virus-Fears.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Spivak&utm_campaign=twr (via @ddubrovskyFX) https://t.co/bq96FHKBNs
  • RT @conorsen: @selling_theta @LJKawa https://t.co/vVfmLgHd9b
  • RT @iv_technicals: So you thought it was all contained, right?! Mhm. Cool stuff. https://t.co/PShm600IPS
  • RT @globaltimesnews: #Hubei Province reported 371 new cases of #WuhanCoronavirus and 24 new deaths on Jan 26 local time; total infection ca…
  • What is market volatility and what does a market event volatility look like? Find out from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/QpD4VP4vDc
  • The last time the $USDJPY suffered this large of a bearish gap in a bearish slide (this one still nascent), was back in May: https://t.co/hTxfyVFiox
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am EST on DailyFX! - https://t.co/RgnsklZ2Gl
  • Japanese Yen, US Dollar May Gap Higher as Week Starts on Virus Fears $USDJPY #USD #coronarovirus - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/asia_am_briefing/2020/01/26/Japanese-Yen-US-Dollar-May-Gap-Higher-as-Week-Starts-on-Virus-Fears.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702 https://t.co/RwVEF3rrO6
Gold Price Outlook Hinges on Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections

Gold Price Outlook Hinges on Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections

2019-12-11 06:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Gold Price Talking Points

The price of gold appears to stuck in a narrow range ahead of the Federal Reserve’s last interest rate decision for 2019, but developments coming out of the US may sway the near-term outlook for the precious metal as the Trump administration prepares to raise China tariffs on December 15.

Gold Price Outlook Hinges on Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections

The price of gold may continue to track the monthly opening range over the coming days as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate in its current threshold of 1.50% to 1.75% ahead of 2020.

A pause in the FOMC’s rate easing cycle may produce a limited reaction as Fed Fund futures continue to show a grater than 90% probability the central bank will retain the current policy after delivering three consecutive rate cuts in 2019.

However, the updates to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) may influence the financial markets as market participants gauge the future path for monetary policy.

Image of Federal Reserve interest rate forecast

The Fed’s interest rate dot-plot is likely to get increased attention as Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. start to endorse a wait-and-see approach, and little to no changes in the forward guidance may drag on the price of gold as the central bank tames speculation for lower interest rates.

However, Fed officials may project a lower trajectory for the benchmark interest rate in response to the ongoing shift in US trade policy, and indications of a more accommodative stance may heighten the appeal of gold as the Trump administration struggles to reach a trade deal with China.

With that said, developments coming out of the US may sway the price of gold, but the reaction to the former-resistance zone around $1447 (38.2% expansion) to $1457 (100% expansion) helps to rule out the threat of a Head-and-Shoulders formation as the region appears to be acting as support.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Gold Price Daily Chart

Image of gold price daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the broader outlook for gold prices remain constructive as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) clear the bearish trends from earlier this year, with the precious metal trading to a fresh yearly-high ($1557) in September.
  • Moreover, the reaction to the Fibonacci overlap around $1447 (38.2% expansion) to $1457 (100% expansion) helps to rule out the threat of a Head-and-Shoulders formation as the former-resistance zone appears to be acting as support.
  • However, the near-term correction in the price for gold has been accompanied by a bearish formation in the RSI, with the pattern offering a mixed signal as a bull flag formation also takes shape.
  • In turn, gold may largely track the November range, with a move above $1489 (23.6% retracement) bringing last month’s high ($1516) on the radar.
  • Need a break/close above the $1509 (61.8% retracement) to $1517 (78.6% expansion) region to bring the topside targets on the radar, with the first hurdle coming in around $1554 (100% expansion), which largely lines up with the yearly-high ($1557).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 4Q 2019 Forecast for Gold

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.