0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The S&P 500's refusal to hit a record and Dollar's anchor to range this past week is sign of summer liquidity conditions, but the quiet is not insurmountable. 'S&P 500 Record and Dollar Break Look to Stimulus and Trade to Override Seasonality' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/08/15/SP-500-Record-and-Dollar-Break-Look-to-Stimulus-and-Trade-to-Override-Seasonality-.html https://t.co/mbvPkdQfYl
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/DmhBkcMZBK https://t.co/kFk6ccU3Sk
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/aXSB0bG3y0
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/1G7CRsegRX https://t.co/i342ipPuvW
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/tHp0Nb3Tr5
  • USD/JPY is bucking the trend in USD weakness, tentatively putting it on a path towards higher levels. Get your $USDJPY technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/RnrBCFE3gt https://t.co/hTSdTcIwZY
  • The Canadian Dollar gained with government bond yields. Might USD/CAD find its way to current 2020 lows? Canada’s benchmark stock index, the TSX Composite, faces the March high.Get your $USDCAD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/0Ba8E2S7vC https://t.co/JLUTzF6xlY
  • IG Client Sentiment is warning that the S&P 500, gold prices and AUD/USD could fall ahead as upside exposure accumulates. What are key technical levels to watch for next? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/YsBypn73vy https://t.co/erPb9HMRVc
  • The US Dollar could be readying to rise against the Singapore Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah ahead. Will USD/PHP and USD/MYR also follow this outlook? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/xvMPZha5SB https://t.co/P9QLmnY1Fg
  • The Euro has been struggling to maintain its upside momentum. Is EUR/USD readying to turn lower? EUR/AUD may be aiming to rise, but has EUR/CAD topped? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/vlJM3iQIYS https://t.co/8FGl10wDto
USD/CAD Rate Forecast: Monthly Opening Range Warns of Further Losses

USD/CAD Rate Forecast: Monthly Opening Range Warns of Further Losses

2019-12-06 01:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Canadian Dollar Talking Points

The monthly opening range casts a bearish outlook for USD/CAD as the exchange rate snaps the range-bound price action from the previous week after failing to test the November high (1.3328).

USD/CAD Rate Forecast: Monthly Opening Range Warns of Further Losses

USD/CAD extends the decline following the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision, and the exchange rate may continue to give back the advance from the October low (1.3042) as it carves a series of lower highs and lows.

The Canadian Dollar may continue to outperform its US counterpart as the BoC tames speculation for lower interest rates, and the central bank may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach in 2020 as Deputy GovernorTimothy Lane insists that “the current setting of the policy interest rate remains appropriate to keep inflation at our 2 percent target.

The comments suggest the BoC will keep the benchmark interest rate at 1.75% for the foreseeable future amid “easing of concerns about the possibility of a global recession,” and the update to Canada’s Employment report may do little to alter the monetary policy outlook as job growth is expected to recover in November.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Canada is anticipated to add 10.0K jobs following the 1.8K decline in October, and a positive development may trigger a bullish reaction in the Canadian Dollar as it encourages Governor Stephen Poloz and Co. to retain a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy.

Nevertheless, the remarks from Mr. Lane suggest the BoC will pay increased attention to the shift in US trade policy as future “interest rate decisions will be guided by our continuing assessment of the economic impact of trade conflicts.

In turn, the BoC may alter the forward guidance for monetary policy in 2020 as the US and China struggle to reach a trade deal, but USD/CAD may continue to track range-bound price action from the third quarter as the Federal Reserve shows a greater willingness to take a break from its rate easing cycle.

With that said, the monthly opening range casts a bearish outlook for USD/CADas the exchange rate snaps the range-bound price action from the previous week after failing to test the November high (1.3328).

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

USD/CAD Rate Daily Chart

Image of USD/CAD rate daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the rebound from the 2019 low (1.3016) has failed to generate a test of the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3410 (38.2% expansion) to 1.3420 (78.6% retracement), with USD/CAD largely tracking sideways as it remains stuck in the range bounce price action from the third quarter.
  • At the same time, the flattening slopes in the 50-Day (1.3215) and 200-Day SMA (1.3278) warn of range-bound conditions as the moving averages look poised to converge with one another.
  • More recently, USD/CAD appears to have marked a string of failed attempts to test the October high (1.3348), with the monthly opening range for December instilling a bearish outlook as the exchange rate snaps the range-bound price action from the previous week after failing to test the November high (1.3328).
  • At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlights a similar dynamic as the oscillator snaps the upward trend carried over from the previous month.
  • The move below the 1.3220 (50% retracement) region brings the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3120 (61.8% retracement) to 1.3130 (61.8% retracement) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 1.3030 (50% expansion), which largely lines up with the 2019 low (1.3016).

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.