We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more
Real Time News
  • Geopolitical developments send #oil prices soaring or falling. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/XVXLyG8vjq #OOTT https://t.co/RMk5Eb5fLU
  • Negative yielding government bonds – What are they telling us? Find out from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/F6JuhmrvPT https://t.co/KdpSjQSJ8F
  • #Euro area stocks may be preparing to break the four-month uptrend built around hopes for a US-China trade deal and an orderly #Brexit outcome. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/ujlCJiXLvh https://t.co/INdFtsrTTF
  • What is the top market moving theme for the coming week? I disagree with the majority. '$EURUSD, $GBPUSD and $AUDUSD Top Volatility Candidates With #Fed, #Election, #TradeWar' https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2019/12/07/EURUSD-GBPUSD-and-AUDUSD-Top-Volatility-Candidates-On-Fed-Election-Trade-War.html?CHID=9&QPID=917719 https://t.co/Q1dbZVN5Us
  • The Australian Dollar was focused on its home country in the past week, but that is likely to change sharply in the days ahead with major global risk events coming up. Get your $AUDUSD market update from @DavidCottleFX here: https://t.co/yZz3hCyVMx https://t.co/1xw1JHwd7l
  • The #Euro broke chart resistance, threatening to challenge the bounds of its longer -term downtrend against the $USD. Bulls may find it premature to celebrate however. Get your market update from @IlyaSpivak here: https://t.co/VfR13llYbW https://t.co/LiWTvIygxc
  • The $USD appears to be stalling against the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah and Philippine Peso, but technical analysis may still favor USD strength. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/AZp98MoXKo https://t.co/jgZMUFVGJB
  • The Indian Rupee soared after the Reserve Bank of India surprised with a rate hold. $USDINR may climb as support reinstates the uptrend ahead of Indian CPI and global trade tensions. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/QEOabsDfMn https://t.co/rqn8Zjrvkv
  • #Gold closed lower after paring early-week gains post-NFP on Friday. But will price finally break support? These are levels that matter on the $XAUUSD weekly chart. Get your $gld technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/RILBGhLAQZ https://t.co/q5znMUlEQA
  • German Bund Yields Update: 2-Year: -0.639% 3-Year: -0.651% 5-Year: -0.548% 7-Year: -0.480% 10-Year: -0.290% 30-Year: 0.228%
USD/CAD Rate Eyes October High as Canada CPI Update Looms

USD/CAD Rate Eyes October High as Canada CPI Update Looms

2019-11-20 01:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist

Canadian Dollar Talking Points

USD/CAD trades to a fresh monthly high (1.3272) as the Bank of Canada (BoC) continues to alter the outlook for monetary policy, and the Canadian Dollar may face a more bearish fate over the coming days as the central bank appears to be on track to follow its major counterparts.

USD/CAD Rate Eyes October High as Canada CPI Update Looms

USD/CAD snaps the string of lower highs and lows from the previous week as BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins warns that “the global context has worsened, increasing risks to the global expansion and the chances of financial stress that could spill over into Canada.

Ms. Wilkins pointed out that “the Canadian economy is performing relatively well overall,” but went onto say that the BoC has “other options in our tool kit, such as extraordinary forward guidance and large-scale asset purchases” as the central bank shows a greater willingness to reverse the rate hikes from 2018.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

In turn, updates to Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) may do little to influence the monetary policy outlook as the headline reading for inflation is expected to hold steady at 1.9% for the third consecutive month.

Looking ahead, the fireside chat with Governor Stephen Poloz may reveal a further shift in the forward guidance for monetary policy as the central bank now expects growth “to slow in the second half of this year to a rate below its potential.” It seems as though the BoC will continue to change its tone over the coming months as the “Governing Council is mindful that the resilience of Canada’s economy will be increasingly tested as trade conflicts and uncertainty persist.

Image of Bank of Canada interest rates

In fact, the BoC now appears to be on track to follow its major counterparts as the “Governing Council considered whether the downside risks to the Canadian economy were sufficient at this time to warrant a more accommodative monetary policy as a form of insurance.”

With that said, it remains to be seen if Governor Poloz and Co. will keep the benchmark interest rate on hold at the next meeting on December 4, but the material shift in the forward guidance for monetary policy may keep USD/CAD afloat especially as the Federal Reserve appears to be moving away from its rate easing cycle.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

USD/CAD Rate Daily Chart

Image of USD/CAD daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the rebound from the 2019-low (1.3016) has failed to generate a test of the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3410 (38.2% expansion) to 1.3420 (78.6% retracement), with the exchange rate largely tracking sideways as it remains stuck in the range bounce price action from the third quarter.
  • At the same time, the flattening slopes in the 50-Day (1.3212) and 200-Day SMA (1.3275) warn of range-bound conditions as the moving averages appear to on their way to converge with one another.
  • More recently, USD/CAD has pushed back above the 1.3220 (50% retracement) region following the failed attempt to test the 2019 low (1.3016), with the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3280 (23.6% expansion) to 1.3330 (38.2% retracement) on the radar, which lines up with the October high (1.3348).

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.