We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Major FX Pairs: Bullish or Bearish as USD Sets Up Camp on the Range https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/live_events/2020/07/07/Major-FX-Pairs-Bullish-or-Bearish-as-USD-Setups-up-JS-Camp-on-the-Range.html https://t.co/63hUap7rVW
  • The #Nasdaq 100 pressed to new heights yet again this week as it followed Asian equities higher. Get your equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/Y5PbSsTgbB https://t.co/OOUmo7hDRN
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.68% Silver: 0.12% Oil - US Crude: -0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/3VeJN5wSzB
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.06%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 74.40%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/1Buvq1BIiL
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.01% FTSE 100: -0.00% France 40: -0.01% US 500: -0.24% Wall Street: -0.65% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/A9KnXteeI4
  • $USDMXN: From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops on a stretch toward the upper parallel. Get your USD/MXN technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/qHFiOObN9W https://t.co/TATFWDkLxS
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Barkin Speech due at 18:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-07
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Daly Speech due at 18:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-07
  • President Trump says Americans will get another stimulus check
  • Poll: Do you think gold will resolve its congestion with a 'true break' (with follow through as opposed to false break) to the upside or downside? $GC_F
AUD/USD RSI to Offer Bearish Signal on Break of Trendline Support

AUD/USD RSI to Offer Bearish Signal on Break of Trendline Support

2019-11-18 02:02:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD attempts to retrace the bearish reaction to Australia’s Employment report, but the monthly opening range keeps the downside targets on the radar as the exchange rate pullbacks ahead of the October-high (0.6930).

AUD/USD RSI to Offer Bearish Signal on Break of Trendline Support

AUD/USD traded to a fresh monthly low (0.6770) as Australia unexpectedly shed 19.0K jobs in October, and signs of slower growth may push the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to further insulate the economy as the updated Statement on Monetary Policy highlights “a case for further easing.”

At the same time, signs of subdued inflation may become a growing concern for the RBA as the Wage Price Index (WPI) narrows to 2.2% from 2.3% per annum in the second quarter of 2019.As a result, Governor Philip Lowe and Co. may continue to endorse a dovish forward guidance as the board remains “prepared to ease monetary policy further if needed.”

Doubts surrounding “phase one” of the US-China trade agreement may also sway the RBA as President Donald Trump warns that “if we don’t make a deal, we’re going to substantially raise those tariffs.” With that said, the ongoing negotiations may produce headwinds for the Australian dollar as China Ministry of Commerce spokesperson, Gao Feng, insists that “the level of tariff rollback will fully reflect the importance of the phase one agreement.”

In turn, AUD/USD may face a more bearish fate ahead of the next RBA meeting on December 3, and the monthly opening range suggests the correction from the yearly low (0.6671) has run its course as the exchange rate continues to pullback from the October-high (0.6930).

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Please add a description for the image.

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the AUD/USD rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.6937), with the exchange rate marking another failed attempt to break/close above the moving average in July.
  • A similar scenario appears to be taking shape as the correction from the yearly low (0.6671) fails to spur a test of the simple moving average, which largely lines up with the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6950 (61.8% expansion) to 0.6970 (23.6% expansion).
  • In turn, the monthly opening range raises the scope for a further decline in AUD/USD as the exchange rate pullback from the October-high (0.6930) and snaps the upward trend from the previous month.
  • Will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it continues to track the upward trend carried over from August, but the oscillator may offer a bearish signal should the indicator snap trendline support.
  • As a result, the rebound above the 0.6800 (61.8% expansion) handle may prove to be short-lived, but need a break/close below the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6720 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6740 (38.2% expansion) to keep the downside targets back on the radar.

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.