News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • 🇺🇸 NAHB Housing Market Index (MAY) Actual: 83 Expected: 83 Previous: 83 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-17
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.00%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 71.53%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/CRl85ShvFp
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.78% Silver: 0.70% Gold: 0.56% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/2TtnMVtOFs
  • $EURUSD still battling at that fibo resistance 2167, another inflection this morning https://t.co/v1X3gN2RRX https://t.co/oMC1OvWkI7
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 NAHB Housing Market Index (MAY) due at 14:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 84 Previous: 83 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-17
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.01% France 40: -0.13% Wall Street: -0.29% US 500: -0.29% FTSE 100: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/e0gUTLKXn0
  • The Pound saw a modest bout of buying as GBP had been underpinned by reduced political tail risks after the SNP failed to gain a majority at the Scottish Election. Get your $GBP market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/bbxv0Aq2LJ https://t.co/LhP15IXDPp
  • it's a big week for $TSLA stock last week it gave up the trendline that's been in-play since last August This week, opening at the 38.2% retracement of the 2020/21 rally https://t.co/cUThTeLFN8
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.11%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 74.44%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/lyppug4pkN
  • LIVE NOW: Join Technical Strategist @MBForex for his Weekly Strategy Webinar to review the setups we're tracking into the weekly open! https://t.co/chKtG7ezG9
EUR/USD Recovery at Risk as RSI Fails to Push into Overbought Zone

EUR/USD Recovery at Risk as RSI Fails to Push into Overbought Zone

David Song, Strategist

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD clears the September-high (1.1110) ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, and the last interest rate decision with President Mario Draghi may do little to curb the recent appreciation in the exchange rate as the Governing Council is widely expected to retain the current policy.

EUR/USD Recovery at Risk as RSI Fails to Push Into Overbought Zone

EUR/USD appears to be making a run at the August-high (1.1250) as the ECB lays out a growing case for European policy makers to shore up the monetary union.

In his latest speech, President Draghi reiterates “governments with fiscal space that are facing a slowdown should act in an effective and timely manner” even though the central bank stands ready to “adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation moves towards its aim in a sustained manner.”

At the same time, ECB board member Francois Villeroy de Galhau aruges that “all available instruments need to be mobilized, including fiscal policy, as a complement to monetary policy” in order to combat the downside risks surrounding the Euro area.

Image of ECB interest rates

It seems as though the ECB will continue to rely on its unconventional tools to insulate the monetary union as the Governing Council remains reluctant to push the Main Refinance Rate, its flagship benchmark for borrowing costs, into negative territory.

As a result, the Governing Council may continue to push monetary policy into uncharted territory as the central bank struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability. However, the divide at the ECB may force incoming President Christine Lagarde to endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy as the account of the September meeting reveals a range of different views within the Governing Council.

In turn, the ECB may merely attempt to buy time at its next meeting on October 24, and more of the same from the Governing Council may do little to curb the recent appreciation in EUR/USD as the Governing Council is widely expected to retain the current policy.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups surrounding foreign exchange markets.

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of EUR/USD daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the broader outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside as the exchange rate clears the May-low (1.1107) following the Federal Reserve rate cut in July, with Euro Dollar trading to a fresh yearly-low (1.0879) in October.
  • However, recent price action warns of a larger correction as EUR/USD clears the September-high (1.1110), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to track the bullish formation carried over from the previous month.
  • Need a break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) to bring the August-high (1.1250) on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 1.1270 (50% expansion) to 1.1290 (61.8% expansion).
  • Will keep a close eye on the RSI as the oscillator struggles to push into overbought territory, and the bullish momentum may continue to abate amid the failed attempt to break above 70.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the4Q 2019 Forecast for Euro

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES