News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • US Dollar Price Action Setups: GBP/USD, AUD/USD https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/analyst_picks/todays_picks/james_stanley/2020/10/26/US-Dollar-Price-Action-Setups-GBPUSD-GBP-USD-AUDUSD-AUD-USD.html https://t.co/kodr21qCu9
  • Precious Metals Update: #Gold 1903.67 (+0.09%), #Aluminum 1842.50 (-0.22%), and #Copper 6867.50 (-0.79%) [delayed]
  • Gold prices remain in a falling wedge pattern that’s been building for more than two months. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/LYSHloh85Z https://t.co/nGqnQKL0KM
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.06% Oil - US Crude: -0.08% Silver: -1.15% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/AnzuzBr9Yc
  • Germany 30 IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now at their most net-long Germany 30 since Mar 19 when Germany 30 traded near 8,568.70. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to Germany 30 weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/tsMt1UlZGO
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.76%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 73.37%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/D4fyK6ilmD
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: FTSE 100: -0.19% Germany 30: -0.20% France 40: -0.25% US 500: -2.42% Wall Street: -2.93% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/2bszQp27Do
  • Commodities Update: NYM WTI Crude 38.38 (-3.69%), ICE Brent Crude 40.29 (-3.54%), NYM NYH Gasoline 111.08 (-2.47%). [delayed
  • Get your Monday market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/iUCcev4Dp2
  • US Equity Update: $DJI -3.11% $SPX -2.58% $NDX -2.38% $RUT -2.96% $VIX +18.40% [Delayed]
EURUSD Opening Month Range Foreshadows Larger Rebound Going Into NFP

EURUSD Opening Month Range Foreshadows Larger Rebound Going Into NFP

2019-10-04 00:30:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EUR/USD pares the decline from the end of September following a slew of dismal data prints coming out of the US economy, and the monthly opening range foreshadows a larger rebound in Euro Dollar as the exchange rate carves a series of higher highs and lows.

EURUSD Opening Month Range Foreshadows Larger Rebound Going Into NFP

EUR/USD extends the rebound from the yearly-low (1.0879) as the ISM Non-Manufacturing survey weakens more-than-expected in September, with the gauge slipping to 52.6 from 56.4 the month prior to mark the lowest reading since 2016.

Image of DailyFX economic caledar

A deeper look at the report shows the Employment component also narrowing to 50.4 from 53.1 in August, and the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may highlight a similar dynamic as the shift in US trade policy drags on business sentiment.

Image of Fed Fund futures

In turn, Fed Fund futures now highlight a greater than 80% probability for another 25bp reduction on October 30, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may come under increased pressure to further insulate the economy amid growing evidence of a looming recession.

It remains to be seen if the FOMC will further embark on its rate easing cycle as Fed officials see the benchmark interest rate around 1.50% to 1.75% ahead of 2020, and the growing divide at the central bank may push the committee to take a more gradual approach in managing monetary policy as Chairman Jerome Powell insists that “the future course of monetary policy will depend on how the economy evolves.”

At the same time, Fed Governor Richard Clarida argues that the US economy is in a “good place” following the back-to-back rate cuts, with the permanent voting-member on the FOMC going onto say that the central bank will “act as appropriate” during an interview with the Wall Street Journal.

The comments suggest the FOMC is in no rush to reverse the four rate hikes from 2018 as the central bank forecasts the US economy to expand 2.2% per annum in 2019, but growing speculation for an October rate cut may fuel the recent rebound in EUR/USD as the exchange rate carves a series of higher highs and lows.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups surrounding foreign exchange markets.

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the broader outlook for EUR/USD remains tilted to the downside as the exchange rate clears the May-low (1.1107) following the Federal Reserve rate cut in July, with Euro Dollar trading to a fresh yearly-low (1.0879) in October.
  • Moreover, recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) instills a bearish outlook for EUR/USD as the oscillator snaps the upward trend from September
  • However, the monthly opening range warns of a larger rebound as EUR/USD carves a bullish series of higher highs and lows following the failed attempt to test the Fibonacci overlap around 1.0830 (78.6% expansion) to 1.0860 (23.6% retracement).
  • In turn, a close above the 1.0950 (100% expansion) to 1.0980 (78.6% retracement) region raises the risk for a run at 1.1040 (61.8% expansion) with the next area of interest coming in around the 1.1100 (78.6% expansion) handle.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 4Q 2019 Forecast for Euro

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES