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NZDUSD Rate Eyes 2019 Low Ahead of RBNZ Meeting

NZDUSD Rate Eyes 2019 Low Ahead of RBNZ Meeting

David Song,
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New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZDUSD approaches the 2019-low (0.6269) ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting, but recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) keeps the monthly range on the radar as the oscillator struggles to push into oversold territory.

NZDUSD Rate Eyes 2019 Low Ahead of RBNZ Meeting

NZDUSD slips to a fresh weekly low (0.6298) even though New Zealand’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report beats market expectations, and the current environment may continue to drag on the exchange rate as the Federal Reserve appears to be in no rush to reverse the four rate-hikes from 2018.

Image of RBNZ interest rate

It remains to be seen if the RBNZ will make a major announcement at its next meeting on September 24 as the central bank is expected to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low of 1.00%, and Governor Adrian Orr and Co. may move to the sidelines after delivering a 50bp rate cut in August as “the larger initial monetary stimulus would best ensure the Committee continues to meet its inflation and employment objectives.”

In turn, the RBNZ may endorse a wait-and-see approach over the remainder of the year, but the weakening outlook for the Asia/Pacific region may push the central bank to further insulate the New Zealand economy as the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) cuts its 2019 global growth forecast to 2.9% from an initial projection of 3.2%.

With that said, the RBNZ may keep the door open to implement lower interest rates, and a dovish forward guidance may produce headwinds for the New Zealand Dollar as New Zealand’s Treasury Department states that “the limit of the OCR, before corporate bond rates reach zero, is between -0.2% and -0.35%.”

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NZD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of NZDUSD daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • NZDUSD has traded to a fresh 2019-low (0.6269) in September after clearing the May-low (0.6482), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic as the oscillator snaps the upward trend from earlier this year.
  • In turn, the broader outlook remains tilted to the downside, with the failed attempt to break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6400 (61.8% retracement) to 0.6430 (78.6% expansion) bringing the 2019-low (0.6269) on the radar.
  • Next area of interest comes in around 0.6180 (161.8% expansion) to 0.6210 (78.6% expansion), but will keep a close eye on the RSI as the oscillator struggles to push back into oversold territory.
  • May see a divergence emerge between price and the RSI should the oscillator hold above 30.

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.