News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The British Pound, Australian Dollar and US Dollar may all experienced heightened periods of volatility as geopolitical risks in North America, Asia and Europe rattle global financial markets. Get your $GBPUSD market update from @ZabelinDimitri here:https://t.co/0EFToM5Y8I https://t.co/TJgBeTgamc
  • Excerpt from my #USD weekly forecast - "The premonitions of slower growth, compounded by political volatility from the election may cushion USD’s decline if it triggers a flight to havens" https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2020/10/25/US-Dollar-Torn-Between-Q3-Corporate-Earnings-US-GDP-Data-Virus-Spike.html
  • $USD | US Dollar Outlook - via @DailyFX "The US Dollar looks primed for heightened volatility this week as election risk intensifies and key themes like stimulus talks, equity earnings, and COVID-19 restrictions exacerbate uncertainty." Link to Analysis: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/us_dollar_index/usd_trading_today/2020/10/26/usd-price-outlook-us-dollar-in-the-hot-seat-as-election-nears.html https://t.co/B6HS0ecNPD
  • There are some major economies set to update on the health through the third quarter this week. The US and Eurozone are later this week, but South Korea is due to report this morning. When was the last time you took a look at the $USDKRW? https://t.co/UQLHfonxnO
  • Heads Up:🇳🇿 Balance of Trade (SEP) due at 21:45 GMT (15min) Previous: N$-353M https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-10-26
  • The Euro remains the largest long by some margin, despite investors trimmed their bullish bets yet again. While the blue wave election trades are USD negative. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/FxzsRmXYVN https://t.co/V4n7ncl1WA
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: -0.10% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.13% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.40% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.43% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.66% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/YlP6D1tUc2
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.03% Oil - US Crude: -0.08% Silver: -1.40% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/4D7w33mAud
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.86%, while traders in NZD/USD are at opposite extremes with 73.83%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/48N5RecRwt
  • RT @Nadex: Will the Dow be bullish or bearish after Nov. 3? Make your prediction today for a chance to win $5,000.* https://t.co/EXtYKMxrrW…
AUDUSD Range Vulnerable to Dovish RBA Forward Guidance

AUDUSD Range Vulnerable to Dovish RBA Forward Guidance

2019-09-02 03:30:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUDUSD trades near the 2019-low (0.6677) ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting, and the exchange rate may face a more bearish fate over the coming days if the central bank prepares Australian household and businesses for lower interest rates.

AUDUSD Range Vulnerable to Dovish RBA Forward Guidance

AUDUSD may continue to track the range-bound price action from August as the RBA is widely expected to keep the official cash rate (OCR) at the record-low of 1.00%.

It seems as though the RBA will largely endorse a wait-and-see approach as Governor Philip Lowe insists “the exchange rate has become the great stabiliser of the Australian economy, arguably playing a more important role than monetary policy in dealing with the major shocks that we have experienced over recent times.

The comments suggest the RBA will remain on the sidelines as the flexible exchange rate provides a buffer, and the central bank may stick to the same script after delivering the back-to-back rate cuts as “the central scenario is for the Australian economy to grow by around 2½ per cent over 2019 and 2¾ per cent over 2020.

Image of RBA interest rate

However, the RBA may keep the door open to further embark on its rate easing cycle as the next round of US and China tariffs kick in this month, and the central bank may take additional steps to insulate the Australian economy amid the weakening outlook for global growth.

With that said, hints of a looming RBA rate cut are likely to drag on AUDUSD, but the Aussie-Dollar exchange rate may face range bound conditions ahead of the central bank meeting as US traders remain offline in observance of Labor Day.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of AUDUSD daily chart

Source: Trading View

  • Keep in mind, the AUDUSD rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.7034), with the exchange rate marking another failed attempt to break/close above the moving average in July.
  • With that said, the broader outlook for AUDUSD remains tilted to the downsideas both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue to track the bearish formations from late last year.
  • However, the string of failed attempts to close below the Fibonacci overlap around 0.6720 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6730 (100% expansion) may keep AUDUSD in its current range, with a move above the 0.6800 (61.8% expansion) handle opening up the former-support zone around 0.6850 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6880 (23.6% retracement).
  • Nevertheless, a break/close below 0.6720 (78.6% expansion) to 0.6730 (100% expansion) the region may push AUDUSD to fresh yearly lows, with the first area of interest coming in around 0.6620 (100% expansion).

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES