We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Bitcoin
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • If you are harboring any designs for the Kiwi Dollar trades or have exposure, we have a 3Q CPI update coming shortly
  • $GBPUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.199 S2: 1.2289 S1: 1.2469 R1: 1.2768 R2: 1.2887 R3: 1.3185 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇬🇧GBP: 1.40% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.28% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.05% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.16% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.30% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/mniVWFo2RE
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.09% Gold: -0.81% Silver: -1.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/fkMLmNBNWw
  • $USDJPY Daily Pivot Points: S3: 106.81 S2: 107.57 S1: 108 R1: 108.75 R2: 109.07 R3: 109.82 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • RT @TradersTextbook: AAh, the unicorn stocks!🦄 Returns from recent unicorns since their IPO. Uber: -29% Lyft: -55% Peloton: -17% Fiverr:…
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.07%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 87.39%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/I63rBfzto7
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.091 S2: 1.0972 S1: 1.1005 R1: 1.1067 R2: 1.1096 R3: 1.1158 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • The bearish steepening of the US Treasury yield curve – long-end rates are rising faster than short-end rates – is a sign of improving risk appetite among traders. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/iVw110HfdW https://t.co/enRFv1p4hT
  • US Equities Update (Tuesday Close): $DJI +0.88% $SPX +1.02% $NDX +1.28% $RTY +1.24% $VIX -7.28%
AUDUSD Rate to Target May High on Less Dovish RBA Minutes

AUDUSD Rate to Target May High on Less Dovish RBA Minutes

2019-07-16 00:30:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUDUSD appears to be making another run at the May-high (0.7061) as the exchange rate extends the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes may fuel the recent rebound in the Australian Dollar should the central bank tame speculation for another rate cut in 2019.

AUDUSD Rate to Target May High on Less Dovish RBA Minutes

AUDUSD extends the rebound from the monthly-low (0.6911) even though China, Australia’s largest trading partner, marks the slowest pace of growth since record keeping began in 1992, and the current environment may keep the exchange rate afloat as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver an “insurance cut” at the next interest rate decision on July 31.

Image of Fed Fund futures

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on track to insulate the US economy as “many participants indicated that the case for somewhat more accommodative policy had strengthened,” and the US Dollar may face a more bearish fate over the coming days as Fed Fund futures show a 100% probability for at least a 25bp reduction in the benchmark interest rate.

In contrast, the RBA may show a greater willingness to revert back to a wait-and-see approach after delivering two consecutive rate cuts, and the central bank may strike a more balanced tone ahead of next meeting on August 7 as “the central scenario for the Australian economy remains reasonable.”

Image of RBA interest rate decision

Keep in mind, the RBA is likely to reiterate its pledge to “adjust monetary policy if needed” as the US and China struggle to reach a trade deal, but it seems as though the central bank is in no rush to extend its rate easing cycle as “the central scenario remains for underlying inflation to be around 2 per cent in 2020 and a little higher after that.

As a result, the RBA minutes from the July meeting may ultimately fuel the recent rebound in AUDUSD, with the exchange rate at risk of making another run at the May-high (0.7061) should Governor Philip Lowe and Co. soften the dovish forward guidance for monetary policy.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of audusd daily chart

  • The AUDUSD rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.7091), with the exchange rate marking another failed attempt to break/close above the moving average in April.
  • In turn, the broader outlook for AUDUSD remains tilted to the downside, with the exchange rate still at risk of giving back the rebound from the 2019-low (0.6745) as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continue to track the bearish formations from late last year.
  • More recently, the advance from June-low (0.6832) appears to have stalled ahead of the May-high (0.7061), but the string of higher highs and lows in the exchange rate raises the risk for a larger rebound.
  • Need a break of the May-high (0.7061) to open up the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7080 (61.8% retracement) to 0.7110 (78.6% retracement), with the next topside hurdle coming in around 0.7180 (61.8% retracement).
  • However, another failed attempt to test the May-high (0.7061) may bring the downside targets back on the radar, with a move below 0.7020 (50% retracement) raising the risk for a move back towards the 0.6950 (61.8% expansion) to 0.6960 (38.2% retracement) region.

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.