News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.07% Silver: -0.02% Gold: -0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/LYRFfkZeeX
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/Q8YRwGv3mA
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.00% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.02% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.08% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/8UV5kohKTL
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.06%, while traders in GBP/JPY are at opposite extremes with 73.15%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/M47Dqej67q
  • The US Dollar may gain versus ASEAN currencies like the Singapore Dollar, Thai Baht and Philippine Peso after the Fed projected 2 rate hikes by the end of 2023. All eyes on US PCE data. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/LaLVW8FFHI https://t.co/BonfAZM5o8
  • S&P 500 Retreats as Investors Mull Tapering, Hang Seng and ASX 200 May Fall https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/market_alert/2021/06/24/SP-500-Retreats-as-Investors-Mull-Tapering-Hang-Seng-and-ASX-200-May-Fall.html https://t.co/vv1dpIZSBU
  • Increased rate bets following June's FOMC rate decision roiled markets, including commodities. Crude oil received a boost on Iran's election, while gold and copper look to incoming inflation data out of the US. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/iGAO4dasIU https://t.co/gpx3AWiTmX
  • RT @BrendanFaganFx: Bitcoin (BTC) Analysis: Dead Cat Bounce After Death Cross, or New Bull Market? #Bitcoin #Ethereum #Dogecoin $BTC $ETHU…
  • (3/3) If that is the case, then US inflation could increase in areas like food, dinning, travel, etc... Thus, CPI risks remaining high, which could continue bolstering the case for sooner-than-expected #Fed tapering #Treasury yields could resume gains and remain elevated
  • (2/3) The Fed's case is that inflation is transitory, especially as the initial effects of the low-base impact and supply chain bottlenecks fade Might inflation jump around? If desire to travel & go out are high, consumers willingness to pay more for these services may rise
Dovish ECB Meeting Minutes to Rattle EURUSD Rate Rebound

Dovish ECB Meeting Minutes to Rattle EURUSD Rate Rebound

David Song, Strategist

EUR/USD Rate Talking Points

EURUSD extends the rebound from the weekly-low (1.1193) as the Federal Reserve prepares US household and businesses for lower interest rates, but fresh developments coming out of the Euro area may rattle the recent advance in the exchange rate as the European Central Bank (ECB) endorses a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy.

Dovish ECB Meeting Minutes to Rattle EURUSD Rate Rebound

EURUSD may continue to retrace the decline from the June-high (1.1412) as fresh comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicate the central bank will adjust monetary policy at the next interest rate decision on July 31 as “uncertainties around trade tensions and concerns about the strength of the global economy continue to weigh on the U.S. economic outlook.”

At the same time, the European Central Bank (ECB) may take a similar approach to insulate the monetary union even though the Governing Council prepares to launch another round of Targeted Long-Term Refinance Operations (TLTRO) in September as the central bank struggles to achieve its one and only mandate for price stability.

Recent remarks from ECB board member Philip Lane suggest the central bank will endorse a dovish forward guidance at the next meeting on July 25 as “substantial accommodation is still required,” and it seems as though the Governing Council will continue to push monetary policy into unchartered territory as Mr. Lane insists that the central bank has a “variety of tools” to shore up the monetary union.

Image of ECB interest rates

In turn, the account of the ECB’s June meeting may highlight a greater willingness to implement more non-standard measures, and the Euro stands at risk of facing a more bearish fate over the coming days if the Governing Council shows a greater willingness to implement a negative interest rate policy (NIRP) for the Main Refinance Rate, its flagship benchmark for borrowing costs.

With that said, speculation for lower interest rates in Europe may rattle the recent rebound in EURUSD, but more of the same from the Governing Council may keep the exchange rate afloat as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) comes under pressure to reverse the four hikes from 2018.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups surrounding foreign exchange markets.

EUR/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart
  • Keep in mind, the broader outlook for EURUSD is no longer tilted to the downside as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) break out of the bearish formations from earlier this year.
  • In turn, EURUSD stands at risk for a larger correction as it breaks out of the range-bound price action from May following the failed attempt to test the 1.1000 (78.6% expansion) handle.
  • The pullback from the June-high (1.1412) appears to have finally stalled around the 1.1190 (38.2% retracement) to 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) region, with the RSI highlighting a similar dynamic as the oscillator continues to track the bullish formation from earlier this year.
  • A break/close back above the 1.1270 (50% expansion) to 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) zone raises the risk for a move towards 1.1340 (38.2% expansion), with the next topside hurdle coming in around 1.1390 (61.8% retracement) to 1.1400 (50% expansion) followed by the 1.1510 (38.2% expansion) to 1.1520 (23.6% expansion) area.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 3Q 2019 Forecast for Euro

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES