News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Hey traders! The lift in sentiment is inconsistent. What are some themes we should be looking out for? Find out from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/E9XhGxkm9s
  • Gold bulls remain in control with the precious metal closing above its 200DMA for the first time since early February. The combination of lower real yields and a softer USD. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/IIrfUPkoMr https://t.co/XAL6wh90Uz
  • Commodities Update: As of 14:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.15% Silver: -0.26% Oil - US Crude: -0.62% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/FwuCskLt6F
  • The $DXY Dollar Index is working on its fourth consecutive daily slide. As we edge closer to the 2021 swing low (89.20 on Jan 6th), worth considering its big picture perspective on a weekly chart https://t.co/LBO5IOQBLU
  • $Silver trying for breakout, as well. BIG zone of resistance ahead, around the 30 handle. Already held two spikes (august, february). If bulls can eventually break through, could be some room to run (chart 2) $SLV $XAG https://t.co/QZHOsqJMno
  • US Treasury Secretary Yellen: - Corporate taxes are at historic lows - Reform is needed to help pay for infrastructure upgrades $USD $DXY $TNX
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 87.53%, while traders in EUR/USD are at opposite extremes with 69.68%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/rZoMbRL3E4
  • a lot of talk about Burry's short on tsla. I'm more intrigued by the bet on inflation. the tsla trade seems to be getting all of the attention Burry was very early on subprime and also pretty early (but ahead of most of the crowd) on $GME. But, his analysis on both was on point
  • DAX 30 sees record high. EUR/USD takes advantage of USD selling. Get your #DAX market update from @HathornSabin here:https://t.co/2uHZRg8ABr https://t.co/aLpmnOYYti
  • Commodities Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.32% Oil - US Crude: 0.08% Gold: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/pt4D4llGLP
Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Abates Ahead of Powell Testimony

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Abates Ahead of Powell Testimony

David Song, Strategist

Gold Price Talking Points

Gold attempts to retrace the decline following the US Non-Farms Payroll (NFP) report, but the price of bullion may face a larger pullback ahead of the semi-annual testimony with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as the bullish momentum abates.

Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Momentum Abates Ahead of Powell Testimony

The recent rebound in the price of gold appears to be have stalled ahead of the yearly-high ($1439), and the precious metal stands at risk for a larger correction as fresh data prints coming out of the US economy deter bets for a rate easing cycle.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

The 224K expansion in US employment undermines the shift in forward guidanceas the economy shows little signs of a looming recession, and the development may generate a growing dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as “the baseline outlook remains favorable.”

In turn, market participants may pay increased attention to the semi-annual testimony with Chairman Powell as “many FOMC participants now see that the case for a somewhat more accommodative policy has strengthened,” and recent remarks from the 2019-voting members suggest the central bank is on track to implement an “insurance cut” as the US and China struggle to reach a trade deal.

Image of Fed Fund futures

Keep in mind, Fed Fund futures continue to reflect a 100% probability for at least a 25bp reduction at the next interest rate decision on July 31, but it remains to be seen if the FOMC will reverse the four rate hikes from 2018 as eight Fed officials project a lower trajectory for the benchmark interest rate.

With that said, upcoming changes at the Federal Reserve should keep gold prices afloat amid the threat of a policy error, and the precious metal stands at risk of exhibiting a more bullish behavior in the second half of 2019 especially as President Donald Trump tweets “we need rates cuts, & easing.

However, recent price action raises the risk for a larger pullback as the rebound from the start of the month fails to spur a run at the yearly-high ($1439), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic as the oscillator falls back from overbought territory.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Gold Price Daily Chart

Image of gold daily chart
  • The broader outlook for gold is no longer mired by a head-and-shoulders formation as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) break out of the bearish trends from earlier this year.
  • However, the near-term rally in bullion appears to have stalled ahead of the Fibonacci overlap around $1444 (161.8% expansion) to $1457 (100% expansion) as the RSI falls back from overbought territory, with the oscillator flashing a textbook sell-signal as it crosses below 70.
  • In turn, a break/close below the $1380 (100% expansion) to $1385 (78.6% expansion) region raises the risk for a move back towards $1358 (78.6% expansion) to $1360 (61.8% expansion), with the next area of interest coming in around $1340 (61.8% expansion) to $1342 (50% expansion), the former-resistance zone.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 3Q 2019 Forecast for Gold

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES