Never miss a story from David Song

Subscribe to receive daily updates on publications
Please enter valid First Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid Last Name
Please fill out this field.
Please enter valid email
Please fill out this field.
Please select a country

I’d like to receive information from DailyFX and IG about trading opportunities and their products and services via email.

Please fill out this field.

Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk.

Your demo is preloaded with £10,000 virtual funds, which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets.

We'll email you login details shortly.

Learn More about Your Demo

You are subscribed to David Song

You can manage your subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive

An error occurred submitting your form.
Please try again later.

Oil Price Talking Points

Crude looks poised for a larger rebound ahead of the Group of 20 (G20) summit as the price of oil extends the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week.

Oil Prices Risk Larger Recovery as OPEC+ Leaders Meet at G20 Summit

Developments coming out of the G20 summit may shake up the near-term outlook for crude as US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with China President Xi Jinping.

Details of a US-China trade deal should keep oil prices afloat as it boosts the outlook for consumption, but the resolution may do little to deter the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies from regulating the energy market as the group warns of waning demand.

Image of OPEC oil demand forecast

OPEC’s most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) highlights slower consumption for 2019, with the group noting that “world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.14 mb/d, lower than last month’s assessment by 0.07 mb/d.”

In turn, comments from Russian President Vladimir Putin and Saudi Arabia Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman may have a greater impact on crude prices as the two leaders are slated to meet at the G20 summit, and the group may continue to curb production in 2019 in an effort to stave off a bear market.

Image of OPEC meeting

With that said, crude oil prices stand at risk of staging a larger recovery ahead of the OPEC meeting starting on July 1, but the broader outlookis no longer constructive as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap the bullish trends from earlier this year.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Image of oil daily chart
  • Keep in mind, a ‘death cross’ formation may emerge over the coming days as the 50-Day SMA ($59.22) approaches the 200-Day SMA ($58.90), with both moving averages tracking a negative slope.
  • However, recent price action raises the risk for a larger rebound as crude breaks out of a narrow range and carves a series of higher highs & lows after failing to test the monthly-low ($50.60).
  • The RSI highlights a similar dynamic as the oscillator bounces back from oversold territory and snaps the bearish formation carried over from late-April.
  • Need a break/close above Fibonacci overlap around $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement) to bring the $62.70 (61.8% retracement) region on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around $63.70 (38.2% retracement) followed by $64.60 (100% expansion).

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for Oil

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.