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NZDUSD Rate Rebound Vulnerable to Dovish RBNZ Forward Guidance

NZDUSD Rate Rebound Vulnerable to Dovish RBNZ Forward Guidance

David Song, Strategist

New Zealand Dollar Talking Points

NZDUSD stands at risk of staging a larger rebound ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision on June 26 as the exchange rate carves a series of higher highs and lows after failing to test the May-low (0.6482).

NZDUSD Rate Rebound Vulnerable to Dovish RBNZ Forward Guidance

NZDUSD appears to be making a run at the monthly-high (0.6682) following the Federal Reserve meeting, and the exchange rate may stay afloat going into the Group of 20 (G20) summit as US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with China President Xi Jinping.

A US-China trade deal may heighten the appeal of the New Zealand Dollar as it boosts the growth outlook for the Asia/Pacific region, but fresh comments coming out of the RBNZ may undermine the recent rebound in the exchange rate if the central bank shows a greater willingness to further insulate the economy.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Even though the RBNZ is widely expected to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at the record-low of 1.50%, Governor Adrian Orr and Co. may continue to endorse a dovish forward guidance for monetary policy as “the Committee was more concerned about a continued slowdown rather than a faster recovery.

It seems as though the RBNZ took a preemptive approach in managing monetary policy as officials discussed“the relative benefits of holding the OCR and committing to a downward bias,” and the central bank may continue to prepare New Zealand households and businesses for lower interest rates as officials “agreed that the outlook for employment growth is more subdued and capacity pressure is expected to ease slightly in 2019.

With that said, a batch of dovish comments from Governor Orr and Co. may undermine the recent rebound in NZDUSD, but the New Zealand Dollar may face a more bullish fate if the RBNZ shows a greater willingness to reestablish a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy.

Keep in mind, the broader outlook for NZDUSD is tilted to the downside as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap the upward trends carried over from 2018, but recent price action raises the risk for a larger rebound as the exchange rate carves a series of higher highs and lows following the failed attempts to test the 2019-low (0.6482).

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NZD/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of nzdusd daily chart
  • The Fibonacci overlap around 0.6490 (50% expansion) to 0.6520 (100% expansion) appears to be offering support, with NZDUSD as risk for a larger correction as it breaks out of the descending channel carried over from April.
  • Need a break/close above the 0.6600 (23.6% retracement) to 0.6630 (78.6% expansion) area to bring the monthly-high (0.6682) on the radar, with the next region of interest coming in around 0.6710 (61.8% expansion) to 0.6740 (23.6% expansion).

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.