We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bullish
Gold
Bearish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Geopolitical risks impacting markets in the week ahead: #AUD May Fall on US-China Trade Deal Fears, #CrudeOil Eyes #OPEC Meeting- https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/07/13/AUD-May-Fall-on-US-China-Trade-Deal-Fears-Crude-Oil-Eyes-OPEC-Meeting.html
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/wSHeU7aRoX
  • 🇯🇵 Tertiary Industry Index MoM (MAY) Actual: -2.1% Previous: -7.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-13
  • 🇯🇵 Tertiary Industry Index MoM (MAY) Actual: -2.1% Previous: -6.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-13
  • 🇯🇵 Tertiary Industry Index MoM (MAY) Actual: -2,1% Previous: -6.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-13
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.93%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 76.12%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/TRp6GF9snQ
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.32% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.27% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.24% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.16% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.09% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/O81hxQPBpL
  • Heads Up:🇯🇵 Tertiary Industry Index MoM (MAY) due at 04:30 GMT (15min) Previous: -6.0% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-07-13
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.31% France 40: 1.23% FTSE 100: 0.94% Wall Street: 0.64% US 500: 0.54% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/YSclbAH1mY
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/ZWaL6laTU5 https://t.co/sBmNFhegO2
Oil Price Forecast: Bearish Momentum Abates Ahead of G20 Summit

Oil Price Forecast: Bearish Momentum Abates Ahead of G20 Summit

2019-06-21 00:30:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Oil Price Talking Points

The price of oil climbs to a fresh monthly-high ($57.37) ahead of the Group of 20 (G20) Summit, with crude at risk of staging a larger recovery as the bearish momentum abates.

Oil Price Forecast: Bearish Momentum Abates Ahead of G20 Summit

Oil extends the advance following the 3106K contraction in US Crude Inventories, with the price of crude breaking out of a narrow range, and developments coming out of the G20 Summit may keep energy prices afloat as US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with China President Xi Jinping.

It remains to be seen if the US and China, the two largest consumers of oil, will reach a trade agreement as the Trump administration relies of tariffs to push its agenda, but efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies may help to stave off a bear market as the group appears to be in no rush to boost production.

Image of OPEC meeting

Recent comments coming out of Russia suggest the region will continue to push for higher oil prices as Lukoil CEO Vagit Alekperov insists that “the OPEC+ agreement should exist permanently,” and the alliance may keep crude afloat ahead of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) on July 1 especially as RussiaPresident Vladimir Putin notes that “$60-65 a barrel suits us just fine.”

With that said, crude may stage a larger rebound ahead of the G20 Summit, and efforts by OPEC and its allies may keep crude prices afloat if the group continues to curb production in the second half of 2019.

Crude Oil Daily Chart

Image of oil daily chart
  • Keep in mind, the broader outlook for crude is no longer constructive as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap the bullish trends from earlier this year.
  • May see a ‘death cross’ formation take shape over the coming days as the 50-Day SMA ($59.53) approaches the 200-Day SMA ($59.05), with both moving averages tracking a negative slope.
  • However, recent price action raises the risk for a larger rebound as crude breaks out of a narrow range and carves a series of higher highs & lows after failing to test the monthly-low ($50.60).
  • The RSI highlights a similar dynamic as the oscillator bounces back from oversold territory and snaps the bearish formation carried over from late-April.
  • The move above $57.40 (61.8% retracement) brings the Fibonacci overlap around $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement) on the radar, with the next region of interest coming in around $62.70 (61.8% retracement).

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss key themes and potential trade setups.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for Oil

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.