Oil Price Talking Points
The sharp selloff in the price of oil appears to have stalled following fresh remarks from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and recent price action raises the risk for a larger rebound as crude fails to extend the series of lower highs and lows from the previous week.
Oil Price Forecast: Can OPEC+ Stave Off a Bear Market?
Oil prices have fallen more than 20% from the 2019-high ($66.60) as the Trump administration plans to impose a 5% tariff on all goods coming from Mexico, and the ongoing shift in U.S. trade policy may keep oil prices under pressure especially as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) insists “consumers in the US and China are unequivocally the losers from trade tensions.”
It remains to be seen if OPEC and its allies will respond to the weakening outlook for global growth as Saudi Arabia Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, Khalid Al-Falih, insists that “there’s an emerging consensus among OPEC+ countries to continue their work towards market stability in the second half of the year.” The minister goes onto say that the group remains committed “to do whatever it takes to stabilize markets,” and the OPEC+ alliance may help to stave off a bear market as Russia cuts crude output by an average 317K b/d in May.
With that said, it seems as though OPEC and its allies will continue to regulate the energy market in 2019, but the growing threat of a trade war between the U.S. and China, the two largest consumers of oil, may keep crude under pressure as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) snap the bullish trends from earlier this year.
Crude Oil Daily Chart
- Keep in mind, a ‘golden cross’ formation took shape last month as the 50-Day SMA ($61.56) crosses above the 200-Day SMA ($59.95), but the difference in slope undermines the potential for a bullish signal.
- With that said, downside targets remain on the radar as crude fails to preserve the upward trend from earlier this year, with a break/close below the $51.40 (50% retracement) to $51.80 (50% expansion) region opening up the Fibonacci overlap around $48.80 (38.2% expansion) to $49.80 (78.6% retracement).
- Recent developments in the RSI suggest the bearish momentum is gathering pace as it extends the downward trend from April and sits in oversold territory, but the oscillator may flash a textbook buy signal over the coming days should the indicator cross back above 30.
- In turn, a move back above the $54.90 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% retracement) area may spur a move back towards $57.40 (61.8% retracement), with the next region of interest coming in around $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement).
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For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for Oil
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--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist
Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.