News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • The continuity seen across these volatility cycles is a good thing. Historical precedence offer a blueprint for identifying conditions supportive for a vol-event to occur, and how they may unfold. Deepen your knowledge of historical volatility here: https://t.co/vg7w10la3j https://t.co/gaYbbaTnpb
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/H19vRDCpUJ https://t.co/HCvzbjEkr6
  • Get our analysts’ view on the key fundamentals for indices in Q2. Download now. https://t.co/Etdyanp76f https://t.co/n2wxfyMsJt
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/5KaUvfGM4I
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/J0EPMD2Cfi https://t.co/9Bjkh5413e
  • Many people are attracted to forex trading due to the amount of leverage that brokers provide. Leverage allows traders to gain more exposure in financial markets than what they are required to pay for. Learn about FX leverage here: https://t.co/BdgFmkRxVw https://t.co/FqAsp91Gia
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here: https://t.co/7t4BzmLg8w https://t.co/cKOUmtj7Dj
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/TnL91f7sl7
  • Human error in the forex market is common and often leads to familiar trading mistakes. These trading mistakes crop up particularly with novice traders on a regular basis. Learn about the top ten trading mistakes and how you can avoid them here: https://t.co/i8E2AXtzF3 https://t.co/cDcjl3Ue09
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/KWOX5wSipe
Oil Prices Susceptible to Larger Pullback on Looming RSI Sell Signal

Oil Prices Susceptible to Larger Pullback on Looming RSI Sell Signal

David Song, Strategist

Oil Price Talking Points

Crude struggles to hold its ground amid the weakening outlook for demand, and recent price action raises the risk for a larger pullback as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be on the cusp of flashing a textbook sell signal.

Image of daily change for major financial markets

Oil Prices Susceptible to Larger Pullback on Looming RSI Sell Signal

Image of daily change for oil prices

The updated oil market report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns higher energy prices will beless comfortable for consumers than they were at the start of the year,’ with the group going onto say that ‘the mood will be influenced by the recent downgrade to global GDP growth by the International Monetary Fund (IMF)’ as the U.S. and China, the two largest consumer of crude, struggle to reach a trade agreement.

The IEA goes onto say that ‘there are mixed signals about the health of the global economy, and differing views about the likely level of oil prices’ as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies curb production, and the group may continue to regulate the energy market in 2019 amid the ongoing expansion in U.S. output.

Image of EIA weekly U.S. field production of crude oil

Along with the 7029K jump in crude inventories, updates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show weekly field production sitting at a record-high of 12,200K b/d in the week ending April 5. In response, OPEC and its allies may further their commitment to rebalance the energy market at the Joint Ministerial Monitory Committee (JMMC) meeting scheduled for May 19, and the alliance may keep oil prices afloat over the coming months despite the weakening outlook for demand.

In turn, current market conditions may keep crude oil afloat especially as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) extend the bullish formations from late-2018. Keep in mind, the RSI as it sits in overbought territory for this year, but a textbook sell-signal emerge over the coming days should the oscillator fall below 70. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

CL1 Daily Chart

Image of oil daily chart
  • The advance from the 2018-low ($42.36) appears to be getting exhausted, with oil prices at risk for a larger pullback following the failed attempts to break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around $64.90 (100% expansion) to $65.90 (78.6% retracement).
  • Will keep a close eye on the RSI as it sits in overbought territory, but may see a textbook sell-signal emerge should the oscillator fall below 70, which may spur a move back towards the $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement) area.
  • Next downside region of interest comes in around $57.40 (61.8% retracement) followed by the overlap around $55.10 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% retracement).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for Oil

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES