News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.31% Oil - US Crude: -0.18% Silver: -0.50% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/AS3CtSNbr4
  • Fed's Evans: - Tepid April jobs report was a 'head scratcher' - Welcomes wage growth as sign of a healthy jobs market - Fed has room to overshoot inflation target - 'It will be a while' before US has made enough progress to talk about tapering
  • US 10-Year Treasury yield extending to session highs and steering the Nasdaq to new lows of the day $NDX $QQQ $NQ_F https://t.co/ReXcLVpGy8
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 88.77%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 78.12%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/wI1kMvJkwU
  • The price of gold extends the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week even though the 10-Year US Treasury yield retraces the decline following the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/kyW7ukihdY https://t.co/keRXgNxmyp
  • Fed's Evans: - Very optimistic US will get back to strong job numbers - Still expects unemployment to fall below 5% this year $USD $DXY $TNX
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.67% US 500: -0.15% France 40: -0.18% Germany 30: -0.20% FTSE 100: -0.27% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/f9gTcPN7Ev
  • EUR/USD holding proven support level. Pullback may be over, but hurdles yet to cross. Get your $EURUSD market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/o6LAHTn29c
  • GBP/USD continues its march higher as the pair breaks above 1.41 for the first time since February $GBPUSD https://t.co/UVswAJplrS
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Evans Speech due at 18:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-05-10
Gold Price Rebound from April-Low Stalls Following FOMC Minutes

Gold Price Rebound from April-Low Stalls Following FOMC Minutes

David Song, Strategist

Gold Price Talking Points

Gold pulls back from a fresh weekly high ($1311) following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, and the recent advance in the price for bullion appears to have stalled ahead of weekend as it snaps the series of higher highs and lows from earlier this week.

Image of daily change for major financial markets

Gold Price Rebound from April-Low Stalls Following FOMC Minutes

Image of daily change for gold prices

Gold struggles to retain the rebound from the monthly-low ($1281) as the FOMC Minutes suggest the central bank has yet to abandon the hiking-cycle, and the committee may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next interest rate decision on May 1 as ‘participants generally agreed that a patient approach to determining future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate remained appropriate.

Image of federal reserve interest rate forecast

It seems as though Fed officials are no in rush to further adjust the forward-guidance for monetary policy as the central bank plans to wind down the $50B/month in quantitative tightening (QT) by the end of September, and Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. may continue to project a longer-run interest rate of 2.50% to 2.75% as ‘some participants indicated that if the economy evolved as they currently expected, with economic growth above its longer-run trend rate, they would likely judge it appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate modestly later this year.’

It remains to be seen if Fed officials will make additional changes to the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) as ‘a majority of participants expected that the evolution of the economic outlook and risks to the outlook would likely warrant leaving the target range unchanged for the remainder of the year,’ and the central bank may continue to endorse a ‘patient’ approach over the coming months as ‘participants continued to view a sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes over the next few years.

Image of fed fund futures

However, market participants appear to be unconvinced, with Fed Fund Futures still highlighting bets for a rate-cut in December, and the inversion in the U.S. Treasury yield curve may fuel concerns of a policy error as it warns of a looming recession. In turn, gold may continue to benefit from the current environment as market participants look for an alternative to fiat-currencies, but recent price action instills a mixed outlook for the precious metal as it snaps the series of higher highs and lows from earlier this week.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Gold Price Daily Chart

Image of gold price daily chart
  • Keep in mind, the broader outlook for gold remains mired by the threat of a head-and-shoulders formation, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) highlighting a similar dynamic as it continues to track the bearish trend from earlier this year.
  • Nevertheless, the opening range for April instills a constructive view for gold amid the lack of momentum to test the 2019-low ($1277), with the $1279 (38.2% retracement) area still offering support.
  • However, lack of momentum to push back above the Fibonacci overlap around $1315 (23.6% retracement) to $1316 (38.2% expansion) raises the risk for range-bound prices.
  • Need a break above the overlap to bring the $1328 (50% expansion) to $1329 (50% expansion) region on the radar, which sits just above the March-high ($1324).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for Gold

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Strategist

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES