We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Trader confidence remains high in the financial markets, with the stock markets still powering ahead and no strong demand for the traditional safe havens. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/QRNHPoMnrY https://t.co/cdP9NCIyWc
  • EUR/USD IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-short EUR/USD for the first time since Nov 07, 2019 when EUR/USD traded near 1.11. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to EUR/USD strength. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/TfTaPofXf1
  • #Gold rises as US equities move modestly lower through morning trading $XAUUSD https://t.co/RWng3oIqtW
  • Forex Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.35% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.22% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.16% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.01% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.10% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.12% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/eSBVAvI7mB
  • Indices Update: As of 15:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 0.31% US 500: -0.06% France 40: -0.10% Wall Street: -0.26% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/YY36jf96CD
  • For #gold to make another attempt at $1,500/oz. and above, the spot price will need to take out two levels of resistance. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/o9TKzPUrwK $GLD https://t.co/myzVurNtBB
  • Fed's Williams: - Operating framework is currently very efficient and effective - No need for a reconsideration on operating framework for Ample-reserves $SPX $DXY
  • The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model forecast for Q4 rises to 0.42%, previously at 0.31% $DXY $SPX
  • UK Election Poll (Kantar) - Conservatives 45% (+8) - Labour 27% (unch) - Lib Dems 16% (-1) - Brexit Party 2% (-7)
  • En español: La tendencia del oro carece de claridad por la falta de avances en la guerra arancelaria y las dudas sobre el posible desenlace del conflicto comercial entre Estados Unidos y China #trading #XAUUSD $XAUUSD $gold https://t.co/WuxBJAciue https://t.co/Qq8yyc8Nbh
GBPUSD Outlook Mired Ahead of Brexit Summit by Bearish RSI Formation

GBPUSD Outlook Mired Ahead of Brexit Summit by Bearish RSI Formation

2019-04-08 16:30:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

British Pound Talking Points

The British Pound attempts to retrace the decline from the first full-week of April as Prime Minister Theresa May prepares to request an Article 50 extension, but GBP/USD may struggle to hold its ground ahead of the European Union (EU) Summit on Brexit as the bearish momentum appears to be gathering pace.

Image of daily change for major currencies

GBPUSD Outlook Mired Ahead of Brexit Summit by Bearish RSI Formation

Image of daily change for gbpusd rate

GBP/USD holds a narrow range ahead of the EU Summit on April 10 as U.K. lawmakers scramble to avoid a no-deal Brexit, and it remains to be seen if the April 12 deadline will be pushed to June 30 as members of Parliament show little to no interest for a second referendum.

The deadlock in Parliament looks poised to persist as the new bill aimed at avoiding a no-deal Brexit gets held up in the House of Lords, and headlines surrounding the EU Summit is likely to shake up the near-term outlook for the British Pound if European officials struggle to meet on common ground.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

With that said, data prints coming out of the U.K. may do little to influence GBP/USD as the monthly update to the U.K. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report is anticipated to show economic activity growing a mere 0.2% in February, but the recent pick up in British Pound volatility appears to be shaking up market participation amid an ongoing shift in retail interest.

Image of IG client sentiment for gbpusd

The IG Client Sentiment Report shows 71.2% of traders are still net-long GBP/USD compared to 68.6% last week, with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.47 to 1. Keep in mind, traders have been net-long since March 26 when GBP/USD traded near 1.3200 handle even though price has moved 1.2% lower since then.

The number of traders net-long is 1.0% higher than yesterday and 19.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 18.7% higher than yesterday and 3.5% lower from last week. Market participation appears to be picking up ahead of the EU Summit as net-shorts recover from Friday, but the ongoing pickup in net-long interest suggests the retail crowd is positioning for near-term rebound in GBP/USD as the exchange rate continues to track the range-bound price action carried over from late-February.

However, a further shift in retail interest may warn of a broader change in GBP/USD behavior, with recent developments raising the risk for a further decline in pound-dollar as the exchange rate trades along channel support. Moreover, recent developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggest the bearish momentum is gathering pace is the oscillator extends the downward trend carried over from the previous month. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

GBP/USD Rate Daily Chart

Image of gbpusd daily char
  • The broader outlook for GBP/USD is no longer bullish as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) threaten the upwards trends from late last year, and the advance from the 2019-low (1.2373) may continue to unravel following the string of failed attempts to close above the Fibonacci overlap around 1.3310 (100% expansion) to 1.3370 (78.6% expansion).
  • In turn, the 1.2950 (23.6% retracement) to 1.3000 (61.8% retracement) area remains on the radar, with the next downside region of interest coming in around 1.2880 (50% retracement) to 1.2890 (23.6% expansion).

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.