News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Supply constraints, rebounding global demand and rising inflation expectations may drive crude oil prices higher in the near term. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here: https://t.co/ezPoAwcJt7 https://t.co/NMfk1cYSvE
  • Take a closer look visually at the most influential global importers and exporters here: https://t.co/G58J1dg6y3 https://t.co/OiRiBVeuzL
  • Crude Oil Prices Aiming Higher on OPEC Surprise, Inflation Expectations - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/title/2021/03/06/Crude-Oil-Prices-Aiming-Higher-on-OPEC-Surprise-Inflation-Expectations.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Moss&utm_campaign=twr $CL #Crudeoil #OOTT #OPEC https://t.co/AKvXWX9DLQ
  • Given the size of the rally in the eleven months preceding the beginning of the current decline a broader sell-off looks warranted. Get your market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here: https://t.co/UxZiSulpwB https://t.co/raXvlzkGbV
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here: https://t.co/kODPAfJE79 https://t.co/lp0tmKS9WR
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqhRoMG https://t.co/3bOSIBeID9
  • Rising yields and US Dollar creates a weak environment for gold, which trades at a 9-month low. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/lh6Qb2qxin https://t.co/MRAYe57e1A
  • RT @FxWestwater: US Dollar Fundamental Forecast: US Dollar Eyes Inflation Data After NFP Boost Link: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2021/03/06/US-Dollar-Fundamental-Forecast-US-Dollar-Eyes-Inflation-Data-after-NFP-Boost.html?CHID=9&QPID=917708&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Westwater&utm_campaign=twr $DXY https://…
  • Forex liquidity makes it easy for traders to sell and buy currencies without delay, and also creates tight spreads for favorable quotes. Low costs and large scope to various markets make it the most frequently traded market in the world. Learn more here: https://t.co/arxYmtQeUn https://t.co/NvEAeWkBP1
  • The British Pound continues to face downside pressure as corrective trades continue. Get your market update from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/YCctQSt2vB https://t.co/naVcnmf9UT
Oil Forecast Clouded by Overbought Signal, Jump in Crude Inventories

Oil Forecast Clouded by Overbought Signal, Jump in Crude Inventories

David Song, Strategist

Crude Oil Price Talking Points

Oil pulls back from a fresh monthly-high ($62.99) following an unexpected jump in U.S. Crude Inventories, but current market conditions may keep oil prices afloat as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in overbought territory.

Oil Forecast Clouded by Overbought Signal, Jump in Crude Inventories

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Oil struggles to extend the advance from earlier this week as U.S. Crude Inventories increased for the second consecutive week, with stockpiles expanding another 7,238K after climbing 2,800K in the week ending March 22.

Image of EIA weekly US field production of crude oil

At the same time, updates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed weekly field production of crude oil climbing to a fresh record of 12,200K b/d in the week ending March 29, and the developments may push the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to regulate the energy market throughout 2019 as the group plans to hold a tentative Joint Ministerial Monitory Committee (JMMC) meeting on May 19.

Fresh remarks from OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo suggest the group and its allies are in no rush to boost production as the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ has helped to ‘return balance to the market and reintroduced a long-absent element of stability,’ but U.S. President Donald Trump may continue to respond to higher energy prices as he tweets ‘world markets are fragile, price of oil getting too high.’

With that said, it remains to be seen if OPEC and its allies will curb production beyond the June deadline as the most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) notes that ‘world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.24 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s projections,’ but the current market conditions keep the topside targets on the radar as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) extends the bullish formations from late-2018. Moreover, recent developments in the RSI suggest the bullish momentum is gathering pace as the oscillator breaks above 70 and sits in overbought territory for the first time this year.

CL1 Daily Chart

Image of oil daily chart
  • Crude extends the advance from the 2018-low ($42.36) following the failed attempt to close below the $55.10 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% retracement) area, with the price for oil coming up against the Fibonacci overlap around $62.70 (61.8% retracement) to $63.70 (38.2% retracement).
  • Need a break/close above the overlap to bring the $64.90 (100% expansion) to $65.90 (78.6% retracement) area on the radar, with the next topside region of interest coming in around $68.80 (23.6% retracement) to $69.20 (50% retracement).
  • Will keep a close eye on the RSI as it sits in overbought territory, but may see a textbook sell-signal emerge should the oscillator fall below 70, which may spur a move back towards the $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement) area.

Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 2Q 2019 Forecast for Oil

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES