News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The Spinning Top candlestick pattern forms part of the vast Japanese candlestick repertoire with its own distinct features. Gain a better understanding of the spinning top candlestick here: https://t.co/DWm7cBMUg9 https://t.co/9SC4I69oi7
  • The European Central Bank will consider it a job well done if there is no movement in EUR/USD or the Euro crosses before, during or after Thursday’s policy announcements by its Governing Council. Get your weekly Euro forecast from @MartinSEssex here: https://t.co/TCTonpE9Ik https://t.co/qq6TTaPtLE
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts @ddubrovskyFX and @FxWestwater on JPY with our free Q4 market analysis guide, available for free today.https://t.co/mzeJ5x73N3 https://t.co/zll2sxL4ja
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/Js6SNdNj9y
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/kIIBffEMi7 https://t.co/MqFQ9uS26R
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analyst @ @MartinSEssex and @DColman on EUR with our free Q4 market analysis guide, available for free today.https://t.co/YwV249fojQ #Dailyfxguides https://t.co/BvfOW4QwZ9
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/6cn6OK6M7w
  • RT @Stephanie_Link: 84% of $SPX companies have beaten EPS estimates to date for Q3, which is tied for the 3rd highest percentage since 2008…
  • What is #NFP and how can you trade it? Find out: https://t.co/XJWS04IF9j https://t.co/iV9lPzPDtc
  • What does it mean when one candle fully engulfs the previous in its price action? The bullish engulfing candle is one of the forex market?€?s most clear-cut price action signals. Figure out how to identify this pattern here: https://t.co/Yg6ecRZZNr https://t.co/3J0xXp4axT
AUD/USD Forecast: Narrowing Trade Surplus to Fuel Post-RBA Weakness

AUD/USD Forecast: Narrowing Trade Surplus to Fuel Post-RBA Weakness

David Song, Strategist

Australian Dollar Rate Talking Points

AUD/USD struggles to hold its ground following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting as the central bank insists that ‘the low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy,’ and recent price action raises the risk for a further decline in the exchange rate as it threatens the range-bound price action from the previous week.

AUD/USD Forecast: Narrowing Trade Surplus to Fuel Post-RBA Weakness

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Recent comments from the RBA suggest the central bank will continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach at the next meeting on May 7 as ‘higher levels of spending on public infrastructure and an upswing in private investmentare supporting the growth outlook,’ and fresh developments coming out of Australia may do little to prop up AUD/USD as Retail Sales are projected to increase 0.3% in February, while the Trade Balance surplus is expected to narrow to A$3700M from A$4549M in January.

A batch of mixed data prints may produce headwinds for the Australian dollar as it puts pressure on the RBA to further insulate the economy, and Governor Philip Lowe & Co. may continue to change their tune over the coming months as ‘growth in household consumption is being affected by the protracted period of weakness in real household disposable income and the adjustment in housing markets.

Image of rba official cash rate

The RBA may show a greater willingness to cut the official cash rate (OCR) to a fresh record-low especially as the U.S. and China, Australia’s largest trading partner, still struggle to reach a trade deal, and the central bank may respond to the weakening outlook for the world economy as ‘growth in international trade has declined and investment intentions have softened in a number of countries.

With that said, AUD/USD may continue to track the downward trend carried over from late-2018 as the RBA gradually alters the forward-guidance for monetary policy, with recent price action raising the risk for a further depreciation in the exchange rate as it threatens the range-bound price action from the previous week. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Image of audusd daily chart
  • Keep in mind, the AUD/USD rebound following the currency market flash-crash has been capped by the 200-Day SMA (0.7208), with the exchange rate still tracking the bearish trend from late-2018 as the rebound from the March-low (0.7003) fails to push aussie-dollar back above the Fibonacci overlap around 0.7170 (23.6% expansion) to 0.7180 (61.8% retracement).
  • However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) offers a mixed signal as the oscillator breaks out of the bearish formation from earlier this year, but AUD/USD threatens the range-bound price action from late-March as it fills the gap from earlier this week.
  • Lack of momentum to hold above the 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) to 0.7110 (78.6% retracement) pivot brings the 0.7020 (50% expansion) area back on the radar, with a break of the March-low (0.7003) raising the risk for a move back towards 0.6950 (61.8% expansion).

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES