We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
More View more

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • video of today's webinar archived and ready to go -> https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/live_events/2019/09/19/fx-price-action-setups-post-fomc-gbp-usd-aud-usd-usd-cad-usd-chf-usd-chart.html
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.42% Gold: 0.41% Oil - US Crude: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/qdRVEtYobI
  • I am genuinely curious how Saudi Arabia got production back up so quickly. Makes it seem like they had massive spare capacity that was idled or they just ran a big garden hose around the portion of the plants that was destroyed...
  • US and Chinese 'deputies' are due to restart negotiations today. Meanwhile, the cumulative pain of tariffs continues to show through. FedEx earnings are an example. Here is $FDX overlaid with the Yuan-Dollar exchange rate (green) https://t.co/WZtuuUkhE7
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.67%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 85.67%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/T417OE2Mmy
  • $NZDUSD: A close below the low end of the zone could send NZD/USD towards 0.6136. Get your #technicalanalysis from @malkudsi here: https://t.co/i2YMDFJkRp https://t.co/TuvWNJZtgg
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.22% Wall Street: 0.13% Germany 30: -0.04% France 40: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/aDo9IwMads
  • Re-upping this. https://t.co/SUv8Lzbhxu
  • $USDCAD: The broader focus remains on a break of the 1.3155- 1.3355 zone for guidance on our near-term directional bias. Get your technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/q1UJdW49AW https://t.co/OR0Gl1YPIn
  • Precious Metals Update: #Gold 1,499.19 (+0.35%), #Aluminum 1,785.50 (-0.36%), and #Copper 5,814.00 (-0.12%). [delayed]
Gold Prices Risk Larger Pullback as Fed Defends Wait-and-See Approach

Gold Prices Risk Larger Pullback as Fed Defends Wait-and-See Approach

2019-03-27 17:30:00
David Song, Currency Strategist

Gold Price Talking Points

Gold pulls back from the monthly-high ($1324) as the Federal Reserve defends its wait-and-see approach for monetary policy, and the precious metal continue to consolidate over the remainder of the month as the price for bullion fails to extend the recent series of higher highs & lows.

Image of daily change for major financial markets

Gold Prices Risk Larger Pullback as Fed Defends Wait-and-See Approach

Image of daily change for gold prices

The near-term advance in gold appears to be stalling ahead of April, with month/quarter-end flows raising the risk for choppy price action, and fresh comments from Fed officials appear to be dampening the appeal of the precious metal as the central bank curbs bets for an imminent rate-cut.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly insists that the ‘appropriate policy is being patient’ amid the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, and went onto say that the benchmark interest rate is at ' a stone’s throw of neutral’ after implementing four rate-hikes in 2018. At the same time, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan argued that the central bank needs to see ‘an inversion of some magnitude and/or some duration’ in the yield curve for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to switch gears, and it seems as though Fed officials will continue to strike a balanced tone ahead of the next meeting in May amid growing accusations of a policy error.

Image of fed fund futures

Nevertheless, market participants appear to be unconvinced by the recent remarks as Fed Fund Futures now reflect a greater than 70% probability for a December rate-cut, and Chairman Jerome Powell and Co. may continue to adjust the forward-guidance over the coming months as the central bank plans to wind down the $50B/month in quantitative tightening (QT).

With that said, looming changes in Fed policy may shore up gold prices throughout 2019, but recent price action warns of range-bound conditions going into the end of the month/quarter as bullion snaps the recent series of higher highs & lows. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Gold Price Daily Chart

Image of gold daily chart

  • Broader outlook for gold remains constructive as the pullback from the February-high ($1347) fails to produce a test of the 2019-low ($1277), while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) breaks out of the bearish formation carried over from the previous month.
  • However, the advance from the March-low ($1281) appears to have stalled ahead of the Fibonacci overlap around $1328 (50% expansion) to $1329 (50% expansion), with the lack of momentum to hold above the $1315 (23.6% retracement) to $1316 (38.2% expansion) region raising the risk for a move back towards $1298 (23.6% retracement) to $1302 (50% retracement).
  • Next downside area of interest comes in around $1289 (23.6% expansion) followed by the $1279 (38.2% retracement) region.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 1Q 2019 Forecast for Gold

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


News & Analysis at your fingertips.