We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads up: Japan’s Housing Loans (YoY) (3Q) is due at 23:50 GMT (15 min) Est: N/A Previous: 2.2% #JPY
  • Hello there, traders! Today’s webinar on how politics will be impacting markets in the week ahead will be rescheduled.
  • *Reminder: Weekly Strategy Webinar tomorrow morning at 8:30am ET on DailyFX! - https://t.co/RgnsklZ2Gl
  • #BITCOIN Daily Pivot Points: S3: 7776.19 S2: 8156.58 S1: 8309.92 R1: 8690.31 R2: 8917.36 R3: 9297.75 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?CHID=QPID=917720
  • Geopolitical developments send #oil prices soaring or falling. Get your market update from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/XVXLyG8vjq #OOTT https://t.co/wbf3Lwe5Qt
  • Join analyst @DavidJSong at 5:30 PM ET/10:30 PM GMT for your weekly update on key news trading events. Register here: https://t.co/gBlrRpCc55 https://t.co/2B8CdSgkuq
  • The Aussie sell-off halted at key lateral support this week and puts the focus on a break of this key range. Here are the levels that matter on the AUD/USD weekly chart. Get your $AUDUSD technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/rU4u1tMlmz https://t.co/QbyxUrDq1a
  • The $JPY market faces a clear disconnect between domestic economic data and monetary policy. What if that were to change? Get your market update from @DavidCottleFX here:https://t.co/4Gr8tLaHvj https://t.co/0eXMv5CTnd
  • #Forex Forecast via @DailyFX: US Dollar Technical Outlook on $DXY, $AUDUSD, $USDCAD, $USDJPY & $EURUSD Full Analysis ⬇️ https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2019/11/17/usd-price-us-dollar-chart-forecast-dxy-audusd-usdcad-usdjpy-eurusd.html
  • Further escalation in Hong Kong will likely bode poorly for risk appetite https://t.co/0NjUd3ahBu
Oil Forecast: RSI Risks Overbought Signal as OPEC Scraps April Meeting

Oil Forecast: RSI Risks Overbought Signal as OPEC Scraps April Meeting

2019-03-19 15:00:00
David Song, Currency Strategist
Share:

Oil Talking Points

Oil extends the advance from the previous week even as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) unexpectedly cancel its next meeting schedule for April 17-18, and recent price action raises the risk for a further advance as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flirts with overbought territory.

Image of daily change for major financial markets

Oil Forecast: RSI Risks Overbought Signal as OPEC Scraps April Meeting

Image of daily change for crude oil prices

Oil climbs to a fresh yearly-high ($59.57)as OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) announces its ‘recommendation to forego the full Ministerial Meeting in April and instead schedule a JMMC meeting in May ahead of the OPEC Conference meeting on 25 June,’ and it seems as though the group will continue to carry out its rebalancing efforts over the coming months as Secretary GeneralMohammad Barkindo states that ‘the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ has ushered in a new, successful chapter in the long history of oil.

The current environment may continue to benefit oil prices as OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) forecasts ‘world oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.24 mb/d, unchanged from last month’s projections,’ but it remains to be seen if the OPEC+ alliance will be extended beyond the six-month agreement as Russia Energy Minister, Alexander Novak, pledges to make a decision in May or June.

Image of DailyFX economic calendar

With that said, developments coming out of the United States may also influence the market as Crude Inventories are projected to increase 2000K after unexpectedly contracting 3862K in the week ending March 8, but another decline in the energy stockpiles is likely to boost the price of oil as the development points to stable demand.

Image of EIA weekly field production of crude oil

Moreover, the previous updates from the U.S. Energy Information (EIA) also revealed weekly field production of crude narrowing to 12,000 b/d from a record 12,100 b/d in the week ending March 1, and a further slowdown in non-OPEC output may fuel the advance from the monthly-low ($54.52) as OPEC and its allies continue to regulate supply. In turn, topside targets remain on the radar for crude, with recent price action raising the risk for a further advance as oil initiates another series of higher highs & lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flirts with overbought territory. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

CL1 Daily Chart

Image of crude oil daily chart
  • The advance from the 2018-low ($42.36) continues to gather pace following the failed attempt to close below the $55.10 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% retracement) area.
  • Need a break/close above the Fibonacci overlap around $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement) to open up the next region of interest around $62.70 (61.8% retracement) to $63.70 (38.2% retracement), with the next hurdle coming in around $64.90 (100% expansion) to $65.90 (78.6% retracement).
  • Will keep a close eye on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as it now flirts with overbought territory, with a break above 70 raising the risk for higher oil prices as the bullish momentum gathers pace.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 1Q 2019 Forecast for Oil

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.