0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇿🇦 ABSA Manufacturing PMI (JUL) due at 09:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 53.9 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • 🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (JUL) Actual: 53.3 Expected: 53.6 Previous: 50.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • Heads Up:🇬🇧 Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI Final (JUL) due at 08:30 GMT (15min) Expected: 53.6 Previous: 50.1 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • 💶 Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (JUL) Actual: 51.8 Expected: 51.1 Previous: 47.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • 🇩🇪 Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (JUL) Actual: 51 Expected: 50 Previous: 45.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • Why financial market traders must monitor both monetary and fiscal policy? Find out from @MartinSEssex here:https://t.co/Fkzk88Y5gm https://t.co/Z4WgszEBoh
  • 🇮🇹 Markit/ADACI Manufacturing PMI (JUL) Actual: 51.9 Expected: 51.2 Previous: 47.5 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.31%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 79.05%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/n9V97YGVVi
  • Heads Up:💶 Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (JUL) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 51.1 Previous: 47.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
  • Heads Up:🇩🇪 Markit Manufacturing PMI Final (JUL) due at 07:55 GMT (15min) Expected: 50 Previous: 45.2 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-08-03
EUR/USD Rate Forecast: Bearish Series Brings 2019 & 2018 Low on Radar

EUR/USD Rate Forecast: Bearish Series Brings 2019 & 2018 Low on Radar

2019-03-05 20:30:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Euro Talking Points

EUR/USD extends the decline from earlier this week as fresh data prints coming out of the U.S. instill an improved outlook for the economy, and the exchange rate may continue to consolidate ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on March 7 as it carves a string of lower highs & lows.

Image of daily change for major currencies

EUR/USD Rate Forecast: Bearish Series Brings 2019 & 2018 Low on Radar

Image of daily change for eurusd rateImage of DailyFX economic calendar

EUR/USD continues to pare the advance from the February-low (1.1234) as the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing survey upticks for the first time since November, while New Home Sales unexpectedly increases another 3.7% in December after expanding a revised 9.1% the month prior.

The positive developments may deter the Federal Reserve from abandoning the hiking-cycle as the U.S. economy shows little to no signs of a looming recession, and the central bank may have a difficult time in defending the wait-and-see approach as recent updates to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report highlight above-forecast growth along with sticky inflation. In turn, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) may try to squeeze in a rate-hike later this year, and it remains to be seen if Fed officials will continue to project a longer-run interest rate of 2.75% to 3.00% at the next rate decision on March 20 especially as U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) are expected to increase another 185K in February.

Image of european central bank interest rate

However, the ECB meeting may shake up the near-term outlook for EUR/USD even though the central bank is widely expected to retain the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP) as officials start to warn that ‘the redemptions of outstanding targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO) were approaching, which might give rise to “cliff effects.’

In response, President Mario Draghi and Co. may show a greater willingness to further support the monetary union as ‘incoming data had continued to be weaker than expected,’ and fresh comments coming out of the ECB may produce headwinds for the Euro should the central bank hold a growing discussion to rollover its non-standard measures.

With that said, the range from late-2018 remains on the radar for EUR/USD as both the Fed & ECB endorse a wait-and-see approach for monetary policy, but the rebound from the February-low (1.1234) appears to be unraveling ahead of the key event risks, with the recent string of lower highs & lows bringing the downside targets back on the radar. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups ahead of the ECB meeting.

EUR/USD Daily Chart

Image of eurusd daily chart
  • EUR/USD is back under pressure following the failed attempt to test the February-high (1.1489), with the recent string of lower highs & lows raising the risk for a move towards the February-low (1.1234).
  • In turn, a close below 1.1290 (61.8% expansion) opens up the 1.1220 (78.6% retracement) region, which lines up with the 2018-low (1.1216), with the next downside area of interest coming in around 1.1140 (78.6% expansion).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 1Q 2019 Forecast for EUR/USD

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.