News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 10:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: France 40: 0.14% Wall Street: 0.02% US 500: 0.00% Germany 30: -0.31% FTSE 100: -0.55% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/1DqihMnbIE
  • EUR/JPY IG Client Sentiment: Our data shows traders are now net-long EUR/JPY for the first time since Mar 10, 2021 when EUR/JPY traded near 129.31. A contrarian view of crowd sentiment points to EUR/JPY weakness. https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/59zAMabrWa
  • Traders utilize varying time frames to speculate in the forex market. The two most common are long- and short-term-time frames which transmits through to trend and trigger charts. Learn more about time-frame analysis here: https://t.co/9S5tXIs3SX https://t.co/fW0bZwEmyN
  • Forex quotes reflect the price of different currencies at any point in time. Since a trader’s profit or loss is determined by movements in price, it is essential to develop a sound understanding of how to read currency pairs. Learn how to read quotes here: https://t.co/CNtqrKWDBY https://t.co/zwj1GW1Isz
  • 🇵🇱 Employment Growth YoY (MAY) Actual: 2.7% Expected: 2.5% Previous: 0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-18
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Gold are long at 83.48%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 75.51%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/HMT6LyyKQO
  • Heads Up:🇵🇱 Employment Growth YoY (MAY) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 2.5% Previous: 0.9% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-06-18
  • Commodities Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.32% Gold: 0.79% Oil - US Crude: -0.29% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/XrFcwZnnix
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4Qi8ieG https://t.co/sNccrLBlhH
  • Forex Update: As of 07:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.17% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.03% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.26% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.44% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.47% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/z7VcGOqJws
Oil Risks Larger Pullback Following Trump Tweet as RSI Reverses Course

Oil Risks Larger Pullback Following Trump Tweet as RSI Reverses Course

David Song, Strategist

Oil Talking Points

Crude pulls back from the monthly-high ($57.81) as U.S. President Donald Trump tweets ‘oil prices getting too high,’ and recent price action raises the risk for a larger pullback as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reverses course ahead of overbought territory.

Image of daily change for major financial markets

Oil Prices Risk Larger Pullback Following Trump Tweet as RSI Reverses Course

Image of daily change for oil prices

It seems as though President Trump is attempting to curb the near-term recovery in crude as he tells the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to ‘please relax and take it easy,’ and the administration may continue to push for lower oil prices as ‘the world cannot take a price hike.’

Image of OPEC meeting calendar

The jawboning puts crude at risk of facing increased volatility ahead of the next OPEC meeting in April amid the weakening outlook for global growth, but the group may show little to no interest in abandoning the rebalancing efforts as the most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) projects a further reduction in oil demand.

Image of EIA weekly US field production of crude oil

In turn, OPEC and its allies may continue to curb production even as energy exports from Iran and Venezuela remain battered by the U.S. sanctions, and the threat of non-OPEC supply may encourage the group to extend the joint venture asfresh updates from the U.S. Energy Information (EIA) show U.S. crude weekly field output climbing to a record 20,000K b/d in the week ending February 15.

Keep in mind, the rise comes after U.S. output held steady at 11,900K b/d for the past four consecutive weeks, and it remains to be seen if the alliance will be extended beyond the six-month agreement amid the mixed comments coming out of Russia.

Nevertheless, the current environment instills a constructive outlook for crude especially as an inverse head-and-shoulders formation appears to be taking shape, but oil prices stand at risk of facing a larger pullback going into the end of the month as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fails to push above 70 and reverses course ahead of overbought territory. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Oil Daily Chart

Image of oil daily chart
  • Keep in mind, the broader outlook for crude remains constructive following the break of the December-high ($54.55), with both price and the RSI still tracking the bullish formations from late-2018.
  • Need a break/close above $57.40 (61.8% retracement) to open up the Fibonacci overlap around $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement), with the next region of interest coming in around $62.70 (61.8% retracement) to $63.70 (38.2% retracement) followed by the overlap around $64.90 (100% expansion) to $65.90 (78.6% retracement).
  • However, failure to close above $57.40 (61.8% retracement) may generate a near-term pullback as the RSI fails to push into overbought territory, with the $55.10 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% retracement) area on the radar followed by the $51.40 (50% retracement) to $52.10 (50% expansion) region.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 1Q 2019 Forecast for Oil

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES