News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/TnL91f7sl7
  • Human error in the forex market is common and often leads to familiar trading mistakes. These trading mistakes crop up particularly with novice traders on a regular basis. Learn about the top ten trading mistakes and how you can avoid them here: https://t.co/i8E2AXtzF3 https://t.co/cDcjl3Ue09
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/KWOX5wSipe
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePTpzSI https://t.co/cwSWCpKtaj
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here: https://t.co/mfwJ0sZLTs https://t.co/zu5hMovbz6
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/QMKyTBOKNG
  • Currency exchange rates are impacted by several factors. Are different world leaders a contributing factor? Find out here: https://t.co/4jsORznRTE https://t.co/aRkGoNvj6D
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9Flsqcxo9 https://t.co/ltVTNO2sjT
  • GBP/USD clears the May low (1.3801) as the Federal Reserve forecasts two rate hikes for 2023. Get your $GBP market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/WdTG2niAKz https://t.co/2j02VyH0wm
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.01% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.36% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.60% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.91% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.96% 🇳🇿NZD: -1.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/HWVSmqaiYF
AUD/USD Rate Forecast: February Range on Radar Ahead of RBA Meeting

AUD/USD Rate Forecast: February Range on Radar Ahead of RBA Meeting

David Song, Strategist

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD extends the rebound from late last week as the U.S. and China, Australia’s largest trading partner, appear to be on track to reach a trade deal, but the exchange rate may face range-bound conditions ahead of the next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting on March 5 as the central bank shows a greater willingness to further support the economy.

Image of daily change for major currencies

AUD/USD Rate Forecast: February Range on Radar Ahead of RBA Meeting

Image of daily change for audusd rate

Developments surrounding China may continue to sway AUD/USD as U.S. President Donald Trump pledges to delay the fresh round of tariffs and hold a summit for President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago, but the weakening outlook for global growth may continue to drag on the Australian dollar as ports in China start to ban imports of Australian coal.

Keep in mind, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has warned against ‘jumping to conclusions,’ with RBA Governor Philip Lowe assuring that the central bank does not expect the recent action ‘to have a dramatic effect on the economy.’ However, efforts to avoid a trade war may do little to boost the economic outlook as the central bank warns that ‘there were significant uncertainties around the forecasts, with scenarios where an increase in the cash rate would be appropriate at some point and other scenarios where a decrease in the cash rate would be appropriate.

Image of rba official cash rate

In fact, Governor Lowe warned that ‘the probability that the next move is up and the probability that it is down are more evenly balanced’ while delivering the semi-annual testimony in front of Parliament, and it seems as though the RBA will adopt a more dovish tone over the coming months amid ‘the protracted period of relatively low growth in aggregate household income.’ In turn, the Australian dollar may face a more bearish fate over the coming months as the RBA stands ready to further reduce the official cash rate (OCR), but recent price action raises the risk for a run at the monthly-high (0.7284) as the aussie-dollar exchange rate reverses course ahead of February-low (0.7054). Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Image of audusd daily chart
  • Keep in mind, the broader outlook for AUD/USD remains tilted to the downside as the flash-crash rebound stalls at the 200-Day SMA (0.7265), with both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) failing to preserve the bullish formations from earlier this year.
  • However, the failed attempt to test the 0.7020 (50% expansion) hurdle brings the monthly-range in focus, with a break/close above the 0.7170 (23.6% expansion) to 0.7180 (61.8% retracement) region raising the risk for a move back towards 0.7230 (61.8% expansion).
  • A break/close above 0.7230 (61.8% expansion) brings the 200-Day SMA (0.7265) back on the radar, with the next area of interest coming in around 0.7320 (50% expansion) to 0.7340 (61.8% retracement).

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES