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Oil Talking Points

Oil prices remain bid even as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduces its global growth forecast for 2019 and 2020, and the ongoing efforts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to stabilize the energy market may spur a larger recovery in crude as an inverse head-and-shoulders formation takes shape.

Image of daily change for major financial markets

Oil Risks Larger Recovery as Inverse Head-and-Shoulders Takes Shape

Image of daily change for crude oil prices

Fresh comments from OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo suggest the group will continue to cut production over the coming months as the official insists that the ‘the market has started to respond positively’ at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and the current environment raises the risk for higher crude prices as Mr. Barkindo goes onto say that ‘we are beginning to see very sharp reductions in supply.’

Image of EIA U.S. field production of crude oil

In fact, OPEC and its allies may curb production throughout 2019 as updates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) show field production climbing to 11,900K in the week ending January 11 after holding steady at 11,700K for three consecutive weeks, and the group may continue to combat the stickiness in Non-OPEC supply especially as Russia Minister of Energy, Alexander Novak¸ endorses a price range of $55-65bbl.

With that said, the advance from the December-low ($42.36) may gather pace as oil prices break out of the downward trend carried over from late-2018, with developments in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fostering a constructive outlook for crude as the oscillator bounces back from oversold territory and carves a bullish formation. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Oil Daily Chart

Image of crude oil daily chart
  • Crude stages a near-term rebound following the failed attempts to test the June 2017-low ($42.05), and oil prices may continue to track higher as an inverse head-and-shoulders formation takes shape.
  • In turn, a break/close above the $55.10 (61.8% expansion) to $55.60 (61.8% retracement) region raises the risk for a larger reversal, with the next area of interest coming in around $57.40 (61.8% retracement) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.70 (50% retracement).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the 1Q 2019 Forecast for Oil

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--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.