We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Heads Up:🇮🇳 Markit Manufacturing PMI due at 05:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 38 Previous: 27.4 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2020-06-01
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 96.58%, while traders in US 500 are at opposite extremes with 75.46%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/Zk9rafUjxv
  • Forex Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇦🇺AUD: 0.88% 🇳🇿NZD: 0.53% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.33% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.28% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.14% 🇨🇭CHF: 0.05% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/vAnfLW0KM5
  • Indices Update: As of 04:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: 1.27% FTSE 100: 1.19% France 40: 1.15% Wall Street: 0.07% US 500: -0.03% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/vwJJvA9zOQ
  • The US Dollar is attempting to find direction against the Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso and Indonesian Rupiah as technical levels hold. The Malaysian Ringgit eyes a key trend line. Get your #ASEAN currencies market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/lcSLkOnJgQ https://t.co/cWQOJBaOpQ
  • (#ASEAN Fundamental Outlook) The US #Dollar is falling against ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar and Indonesian #Rupiah as stock markets rise. Watch out for US-China escalation and #Brexit talks $USDSGD $USDIDR $USDMYR $USDPHP - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2020/06/01/US-Dollar-Wilting-as-IDR-SGD-gain-US-China-Spat-Brexit-Talks-Eyed.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/esN2pUqyZW
  • RT @FactSet: Since March 31, $SPX forward 12M EPS has declined by 14.2% while $SPX price has increased by 17.2%. https://t.co/eQTjXfg2dc ht…
  • USD/CAD holds near the monthly low (1.3728) after snapping the range bound price action carried over from April, but Canada’s 1Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may undermine the recent decline. Get your $USDCAD market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/47Pjp03afU https://t.co/s4O86pwu2O
  • Market snapshot: #AUD surging with #NZD at the expense of #USD and #JPY. #HKD also down amid political uncertainty while US equity futures trade in the green with APAC stocks
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 1.71% Gold: 0.58% Oil - US Crude: 0.02% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/XnIMS4xarU
AUD/USD Rate Weakness Fuels Shift in Retail Interest

AUD/USD Rate Weakness Fuels Shift in Retail Interest

2018-12-14 17:00:00
David Song, Strategist
Share:

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD slips to a fresh monthly-low (0.7155) as lackluster data prints coming out of China, Australia’s largest trading partner, rattle the economic outlook for the Asia/Pacific region, and the advance from the 2018-low (0.7021) may continue to as the pickup in volatility spurs a further shift in retail interest.

Image of daily change for major currencies

AUD/USD Rate Weakness Fuels Shift in Retail Interest

Image of daily change for audusd rate

AUD/USD is back under pressure even though China pledges to suspend the additional 25% tariff on U.S. autos for 90-days, and it seems as though the trade truce has done little to alleviate the outlook for global growth as Chinese retail and industrial numbers come up short.

The lingering threat of a U.S.-China trade war is likely to keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the sidelines as officials see ‘signs of a slowdown in global trade, partly stemming from ongoing trade tensions,’ and Governor Philip Lowe & Co. appear to be on track to retain the record-low cash rate throughout the first-half of 2019 as ‘growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined.

The RBA’s wait-and-see approach for monetary policy puts increased emphasis on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision slate for December 19 as the central bank is widely expected deliver a 25bp rate-hike, and the deviating paths for monetary policy may produce headwinds for AUD/USD as Chairman Jerome Powell & Co. look to carry the hiking-cycle into 2019.

With said, AUD/USD remains at risk of giving back the advance from the 2018-low (0.7021) as both price and the Strength Index (RSI) snap the bullish formations carried over from October, but retail traders continue to fade the weakness in the exchange rate as the pickup in volatility fuels a pickup in net-long interest.

Image of IG client sentiment for audusd

The IG Client Sentiment Report shows 70.5%of traders are now net-long AUD/USD compared 63.3% at the start of the week, with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.4 to 1.In fact, the percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since October 26 when AUD/USD traded near the 0.7080 region. The number of traders net-long is 3.0% higher than yesterday and 2.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 25.4% lower than yesterday and 14.8% lower from last week.

The drop in net-short position continues to point to profit-taking behavior as AUD/USD slips to a fresh monthly-low (0.7155), but the ongoing buildup in net-long interest offers a contrarian view to crowd sentiment as the advance from 2018-low (0.7021) continues to unravel. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Image of audusd daily chart
  • Keep in mind, the opening range for December keeps the downside targets on the radar for AUD/USD, but still waiting for a break/close below 0.7170 (23.6% expansion) to 0.7180 (61.8% retracement) to open up the next downside hurdle around 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) to 0.7110 (78.6% retracement).
  • The 0.7020 (50% expansion) area comes up next, which lines up with the 2018-low (0.7021), with the next region of interest coming in around 0.6950 (61.8% expansion).

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.