News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/Q3Yfe6TMLw
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/6inC94w5K4
  • All eyes on the Fed on Wednesday as investors weigh on chances of a taper announcement. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/Cv06XcvldF https://t.co/I12g2YPkdE
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/KsPiWBysiR
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/iUvhLfQgcK
  • The US Dollar caught a bid in the late part of last week to set a fresh September high. FOMC is around the corner, are bulls going to be able to push for another fresh high? Get your weekly US Dollar forecast from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/ZkDHyV1VhM https://t.co/w5sPChKdNx
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sIHrP https://t.co/bde30KM8OE
  • The Australian Dollar remains vulnerable to most of its major counterparts, with AUD/USD and AUD/JPY resuming losses. Did AUD/NZD bottom? AUD/CAD may consolidate. Get your weekly Australian Dollar forecast from @ddubrovskyFX here: https://t.co/sjh91mjtXs https://t.co/dGT067zKnH
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here: https://t.co/KDjIjLdTSk https://t.co/VLZQhrQTAf
  • The ISM manufacturing index plays an important role in forex trading, with ISM data influencing currency prices globally. Learn about the importance of the ISM manufacturing index here: https://t.co/Xr3xtoFpZy https://t.co/j5xDAG6LLb
AUD/USD Carves Bearish Series, RSI Threatens Upward Trend

AUD/USD Carves Bearish Series, RSI Threatens Upward Trend

David Song, Strategist

Australian Dollar Talking Points

AUD/USD fills the gap from earlier this week as updates to Australia’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report instills a weakened outlook for the region, and recent price action raises the risk for a further depreciation as the exchange rate carves a series of lower highs & lows.

Image of daily change for major currencies

AUD/USD Carves Bearish Series, RSI Threatens Upward Trend

Image of daily change for audusd rate

Signs of a slower growth is likely to keep the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the sidelines at the first 2019 meeting on February 4 as ‘the low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy,’ and the central bank may continue to endorse a wait-and-see approach over the coming months as ‘growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined.’

Even though the U.S. and China agree on a 90-day truce, the ongoing shift in trade policy may continue to dampen the economic outlook for the Asia/Pacific region the RBA sees ‘signs of a slowdown in global trade.’ In turn, Governor Philip Lowe & Co. appears to be on track to support the real economy throughout 2019, and it seems as though the central bank is also bracing for a further depreciation in the aussie-dollar exchange rate as ‘there has also been a broad-based appreciation of the US dollar this year.

In turn, AUD/USD may continue to chip away at the advance from the 2018-low (0.7021) as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver a 25bp rate-hike next month, but the recent pickup in volatility appears to be spurring a round of profit-taking amid the drop in retail interest.

Image of IG client sentiment for audusd

The IG Client Sentiment Report shows 60.3% of traders are now net-long AUD/USD compared to 54.3% last week, with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.52 to 1. However, the number of traders net-long is 23.5% higher than yesterday and 5.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 31.5% lower than yesterday and 17.0% lower from last week.

Waning participation may foster range-bound conditions as market participants eagerly wait for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision on December 19, but the growing skew in retail position offers a contrarian view to crowd sentiment especially as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) start to threaten the bullish formations carried over from October. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Image of audusd daily chart
  • Keep in mind, the break of the September-high (0.7315) instills a constructive outlook for AUD/USD, but the advance from the 2018-low (0.7021) appears to sputtering ahead of the 0.7400 (38.2% expansion) handle as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) threaten the upward trends carried over from October.
  • With that said, lack of momentum to hold above the 0.7320 (50% expansion) to 0.7340 (61.8% retracement) region brings 0.7230 (61.8% retracement) on the radar, with the next downside region of interest coming in around 0.7170 (23.6% expansion) to 0.7180 (61.8% retracement).
  • Next downside hurdle comes in around 0.7090 (78.6% retracement) to 0.7110 (78.6% retracement) followed by 0.7020 (50% expansion), which lines up with the 2018-low (0.7021).
Image of DailyFX economic calendar

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES