News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The non-farm payroll (NFP) figure is a key economic indicator for the United States economy. It is also referred to as the monthly market mover. Find out why it has been given this nickname here: https://t.co/yOUVEEqhc5 https://t.co/qtAmyhFU9A
  • Get your snapshot update of the of relative currency strength and exchange status from around the globe here: https://t.co/H19vRDCpUJ https://t.co/S74APOiQ3y
  • Two of the main Euro-pairs, $EURUSD and $EURGBP, are being driven by very different drivers. Get your market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/Vd32Y6HKEr https://t.co/Lgb5z5V1Xa
  • Recessions can devastate the economy and disrupt the fortunes of individuals, businesses, and investors. But economic decline in the business cycle is inevitable, and your trading can be defined by how you respond to crisis. learn how to prepare here: https://t.co/e4CnobJCss https://t.co/9uPXNvDBS5
  • We ended this past week with another cliffhanger. The $SPX teeters on the edge of a breakdown from the post-pandemic recovery. While we have NFPs and other key data ahead, the markets are likely to remain fixated on yields. My outlook for next week: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/02/27/SP-500-Dollar-Reversal-Hinge-Not-On-NFPs-but-Markets-Risk-Imagination.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/mlNDDyTgex
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/70ZOJ0ZMwF
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/SyroornFf5
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4QhQGQ6 https://t.co/KrMcyZZqO7
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision may spark a bullish reaction in $AUDUSD as the central bank is expected to retain the current course for monetary policy. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/WbcR9ER0qT https://t.co/TynsqCtPQ6
  • Gold has broken below a critical support confluence we’ve been tracking for months now and the risk remains for further losses while below this threshold in the weeks ahead. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/xgN2obaIWR https://t.co/H71ufPNkPg
Oil Price RSI Holds in Oversold Territory Even as UAE Vows to Cut Output

Oil Price RSI Holds in Oversold Territory Even as UAE Vows to Cut Output

David Song, Strategist

Oil Talking Points

Oil prices have finally recovered from a record losing-streak as United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei vows ‘to cut production to keep the market balanced,’ but there seems to be a broader shift in trading behavior, with energy prices vulnerable to further losses as long as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in oversold territory.

Image of daily change for major financial markets

Oil Price RSI Sits in Oversold Territory Even as UAE Vows to Cut Output

Image of daily change for oil prices

It seems as though the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies will continue to respond to the sharp decline in crude prices as Russia’s President,Vladimir Putin, favors oil ‘somewhere around $70.’ and the group may take further steps to keep energy prices afloat at the next meeting on December 6 as Saudi Arabia now plans to reduce exports by 500K b/d.

With OPEC now abandoning the produce as much you can mode,’ the recent experience suggests the group will retain a proactive approach in 2019 as suppliers attempt to stabilize energy prices, but the pickup in volatility appears to be fueling a broader change in market behavior amid the ongoing shift in retail interest.

Image of IG client sentiment for crude oil

The IG Client Sentiment Report shows whopping 87.4% of traders are net-long crude, which compares to 82.6% during the previous week, with the ratio of traders long to short at 6.91 to 1.In fact, traders have been net-long since October 11 when oil traded near the $71.00 mark even though price has moved23.1% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 10.7% lower than yesterday and 27.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.1% higher than yesterday and 5.5% lower from last week.

The ongoing accumulation in net-long interest provides a contrarian view to crowd sentiment as traders seem to be betting on a larger recovery, and crude may face a more bearish fate going into 2019 as it snaps the upward trend from earlier this year. At the same time, the stickiness in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) warns of further losses as the momentum indicator sits in oversold territory, but the oscillator may flash a bullish signal over the coming days as it breaks out of the downward trend carried over from October. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Oil Daily Chart

Image of oil daily chart
  • Broader outlook for crude remains tilted to the downside as oil prices tumble to a fresh yearly-low ($54.79), with a break/close below the $55.00 (61.8% expansion) to $55.30 (61.8% retracement) region raising the risk for a move towards the $52.00 (50% expansion) handle.
  • However, the recent series of higher lows may generate a larger rebound in crude especially as the RSI bounces back from an extreme reading, with the first region of interest coming in around $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.30 (78.6% expansion) followed by the Fibonacci overlap around $62.40 (23.6% expansion) to $63.60 (38.2% retracement).

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q4 Forecast for Oil

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES