News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • We ended this past week with another cliffhanger. The $SPX teeters on the edge of a breakdown from the post-pandemic recovery. While we have NFPs and other key data ahead, the markets are likely to remain fixated on yields. My outlook for next week: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2021/02/27/SP-500-Dollar-Reversal-Hinge-Not-On-NFPs-but-Markets-Risk-Imagination.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/mlNDDyTgex
  • Make smart trading decisions with your free guide to trade the news. Download your free guide here.https://t.co/pb5E2KgRzW #DailyFXGuides https://t.co/70ZOJ0ZMwF
  • Looking for a new way to trade reversals? One of the most used reversal candle patterns is known as the Harami. Like most candlestick formation patterns, the Harami tells a story about sentiment in the market. Get better with trading reversals here: https://t.co/rfwUWJfbz9 https://t.co/SyroornFf5
  • MACD who? The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a technical indicator which simply measures the relationship of exponential moving averages (EMA). Find out how you can incorporate MACD into your trading strategy here: https://t.co/ZNs4QhQGQ6 https://t.co/KrMcyZZqO7
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision may spark a bullish reaction in $AUDUSD as the central bank is expected to retain the current course for monetary policy. Get your market update from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/WbcR9ER0qT https://t.co/TynsqCtPQ6
  • Gold has broken below a critical support confluence we’ve been tracking for months now and the risk remains for further losses while below this threshold in the weeks ahead. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/xgN2obaIWR https://t.co/H71ufPNkPg
  • Knowing how to accurately value a stock enables traders to identify and take advantage of opportunities in the stock market. Find out the difference between a stock's market and intrinsic value, and the importance of the two here: https://t.co/QszmdZFxlk https://t.co/Evr5KgUjVo
  • $GBPUSD corrects from stretched valuations, however, positioning clear is likely to entice dip-buyers. Get your market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/sfFdBx9pN6 https://t.co/j6nnry65SW
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/oQrOpYINOj
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/Yl9vM7kO6a https://t.co/LSVPlus0vv
Oil Prices Risk Larger Rebound as RSI Recovers from Oversold Territory

Oil Prices Risk Larger Rebound as RSI Recovers from Oversold Territory

David Song, Strategist

Oil Talking Points

Crude appears to be catching a bid as the United States restores sanctions on Iran, and recent price action raises the risk for a larger rebound as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be bouncing back from oversold territory.

Image of daily change for major financial markets

Oil Prices Risk Larger Rebound as RSI Recovers from Oversold Territory

Image of daily change for crude oil prices

In response to the Iran sanctions, it seems as though the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) will pursue a produce as much you can mode’ over the remainder of the year, and the group may continue to react to the rise in protectionism as the U.S. and China, the two largest consumers of crude, struggle to reach a trade deal.

In turn, OPEC and its allies may continue to tame energy prices in 2019 as the Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) expects the slowdown in emerging market economies to drag on global consumption, and the pickup in volatility may continue to fuel a change in market behavior as retail interest pushes to extremes.

Image of IG client sentiment for crude oil

The IG Client Sentiment Report shows 84.1% of traders are net-long crude, with the ratio of traders long to short at 5.27 to 1.In fact, traders have been net-long since October 11 when oil traded near the $71.00 mark even though price has moved 15.7% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 11.6% higher than yesterday and 54.1% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 11.8% lower than yesterday and 11.0% lower from last week.

The ongoing accumulation in net-long interest offers a contrarian view to crowd sentiment as traders attempt to fade the weakness in oil prices, with the broader outlook for crude remains tilted to the downside as it now snaps the upward trend from earlier this year.

At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also indicates a change in market behavior as the momentum indicator dips into oversold territory for the first time since 2017, but recent price action raises the risk for a larger rebound as the oscillator appears to be climbing back above 30. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Analyst David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups.

Oil Daily Chart

Image of gbpusd daily chart
  • Crude remains vulnerable as it extends the series of lower highs & lows from the previous week, with a break/close below the $62.10 (78.6% retracement) to $62.80 (38.2% retracement) region opening up the Fibonacci overlap around $59.00 (61.8% retracement) to $59.30 (78.6% expansion), which sits just above the 2018-low ($58.11).
  • However, the RSI may flash a bullish signal as it threatens the bearish formation from October and appears to be bouncing back from oversold territory, with a series of failed attempts to break/close below the $62.10 (78.6% retracement) to $62.80 (38.2% retracement) region raising the risk for a move towards $64.80 (100% expansion) to $65.30 (61.8% retracement).
  • Next topside region of interest comes in around $67.00 (50% expansion) to $67.50 (50% retracement) followed by the $69.10 (61.8% expansion) to $69.70 (38.2% retracement) area.

For more in-depth analysis, check out the Q4 Forecast for Oil

Additional Trading Resources

Are you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the ‘Traits of a Successful Trader’ series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow.

Want to know what other markets the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2018.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES